Gold Falls to $4,186, Down 25% From January High; Hidden Central Bank Buying Seen at 244 Tonnes

Gold fell to $4,186 on July 6, 2026, according to LiteFinance, roughly 25% below its January 28 all-time high of $5,589 after posting its weakest quarterly performance in 13 years. The pullback masks a divergence between reported and actual central-bank demand: official Q1 2026 net purchases totaled just 16 tonnes, yet J.P. Morgan's tracking of London over-the-counter flows and Swiss refinery shipments estimates actual official-sector buying at 244 tonnes, above the 2021–2025 average, with China's Q1 imports nearly tripling to 317 tonnes.

Gold rose 1.4% on July 2 and 2.3% for the week after U.S. nonfarm payrolls printed 57,000—far below expectations—marking its first weekly gain in five weeks. The move reflects traders reconsidering whether the economy can sustain the rate hikes priced into markets following the January 30 nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair.