The Conference Board released June Consumer Confidence Index data on Tuesday at 10 am ET, showing the index rose to 91.2 from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May, though below economists' consensus forecast of 94.2. Spot gold spiked to session highs of $4,047.71 per ounce following the release, gaining 0.71% on the daily chart. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, attributed the uptick to falling oil prices in recent weeks providing relief to consumer inflation fears, while noting measurably softer labor market perceptions offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.
Conference Board Reports Mixed Consumer Confidence Components
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 3.0 points to 116.4 in June. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 3.0 points to 74.4. The survey period was June 1-23, encompassing an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
"Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears," Peterson stated. "Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were 'hard to get' rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%). Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes."
Labor Market Perceptions Soften to Multi-Year Lows
The Present Situation Index saw a decline in June. Net views of current business conditions—the share saying conditions are "good" versus "bad"—improved by 1 percentage point to +3.5%. However, perceptions of current employment conditions declined, with the labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" minus the share saying jobs are "hard to get"—declining by 2.6 percentage points to just +2.4%. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 22.5%, a five-and-a-half-year high matching the January 2021 level of 22.8%.
The Expectations Index improved in June, with two of its three components—net expectations for business and expected household income six months from now—both improving. Net expectations for labor market conditions were unchanged.
Demographic Groups Show Varied Confidence Trends
Among age groups, confidence for consumers under age 35 remained the highest, but confidence for all age groups trended downward on a six-month moving average basis. By income, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence was mixed or little changed across all categories. By generation, confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation but was stable or lower for others on a six-month moving average basis. By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats rose while Republicans were somewhat less positive on a month-over-month basis.
Peterson added that consumers' write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. "References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher."
FAQ
What was the Consumer Confidence Index reading in June?
The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.2 in June, up from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May but below the economists' consensus forecast of 94.2.
How did gold prices react to the Consumer Confidence data release?
Spot gold spiked to session highs of $4,047.71 per ounce following the 10 am ET data release on Tuesday, registering a 0.71% gain on the daily chart.
What percentage of consumers said jobs were hard to get in June?
The percentage of consumers saying jobs were "hard to get" rose to 22.5% in June, the highest level since January 2021 when it reached 22.8%.
