Goldman Sachs Warns S&P 500 Buyback Support Erodes as AI Capex Surges 33% in 2026

According to Goldman Sachs, S&P 500 companies are slowing stock buybacks today (May 9) as artificial intelligence capital expenditure accelerates. The bank projects 2026 capex will grow 33% while buyback growth reaches only 3%, a significant shift from 2025 when capex grew 20% and buybacks expanded 9%.

First-quarter earnings revealed the trend's acceleration: S&P 500 capex grew 39% while buyback totals increased just 1%. Analysts noted that mega-cap firms leading AI spending are driving the slowdown most sharply, pressuring overall market buyback rates. Since buybacks typically support stock prices by reducing share supply, the shift threatens a key support level for equities.