Hana Securities released a report on July 20 forecasting that US hyperscaler earnings reports starting in late July will determine whether Korean semiconductor stocks rebound. Analyst Lee Jae-man, who accurately predicted the KOSPI's May correction, stated that Alphabet reports on July 22 (local time), Microsoft and Meta on July 29, and Amazon on July 30. Lee cited historical patterns showing that sectors leading previous bull markets tend to drive index rebounds, explaining why investors should maintain positions in semiconductors, hardware, and power equipment despite recent KOSPI volatility that saw the index drop 20% from its June 22 peak of 9114.55 to 7291.91 by July 9.
Hana Securities Identifies Hyperscaler Earnings as Semiconductor Stock Catalyst
Hana Securities stated in its July 20 report that second-quarter earnings from US hyperscalers will serve as a turning point for Korean semiconductor company stock prices. Alphabet is scheduled to report on July 22 (local time), while Microsoft and Meta report on July 29, and Amazon on July 30.
Analyst Lee Jae-man stated in the report that "whether Meta and Amazon beat or miss earnings per share (EPS) estimates, and whether Microsoft beats or misses capital expenditure (CAPEX) estimates, will affect the stock returns of global semiconductor companies." Lee explained that "after the dot-com bubble collapse (after September 2001), after the global financial crisis (after October 2008), after the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes (after September 2022), and after the mutual tariff announcements (after April 2025), the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month stock returns of sectors that led previous bull markets were relatively higher than the index during rebounds, and tended to lead index recoveries."
Analyst Lee Jae-man Predicted KOSPI Peak in May 18 Report
Lee gained attention for his May 18 report titled "KOSPI, Now to the 10000p Era," in which he warned that "if SK Hynix's market capitalization surpasses Samsung Electronics when SK Hynix's 2026-2027 net profit estimates are smaller than Samsung Electronics, the bull market has reached its peak."
Lee cited the US stock market during the 2000 dot-com bubble as precedent. That year, network equipment company Cisco Systems surpassed Microsoft (MS) and General Electric (GE) to become the number one S&P 500 company by market capitalization, but its net profit was only 20% of GE's and 28% of MS's. Lee explained that expectations drove stock prices ahead of actual performance, ultimately leading to a bubble collapse.
On June 22, when SK Hynix's market capitalization exceeded Samsung Electronics for the first time, the KOSPI reached an all-time high of 9114.55 points. Just two weeks after reaching its peak, on July 9, the index dropped 20% to 7291.91, entering a correction phase.
Historical Sector Leadership Patterns Support Semiconductor Holdings
Lee stated that "this is why investors should hold onto semiconductors, hardware, and power equipment within the KOSPI, which were the previous leading sectors." The analyst referenced four historical rebound periods: after the dot-com bubble collapse (after September 2001), after the global financial crisis (after October 2008), after the Fed's aggressive rate hikes (after September 2022), and after mutual tariff announcements (after April 2025).
During these recovery phases, sectors that led the preceding bull markets showed 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month stock returns that were relatively higher than the overall index, according to the report.
FAQ
When do US hyperscalers report second-quarter earnings?
Alphabet reports on July 22 (local time), Microsoft and Meta report on July 29, and Amazon reports on July 30.
What did analyst Lee Jae-man predict in his May 18 report?
Lee warned in his May 18 report titled "KOSPI, Now to the 10000p Era" that the bull market would reach its peak if SK Hynix's market capitalization surpassed Samsung Electronics despite SK Hynix having smaller 2026-2027 net profit estimates than Samsung Electronics. The KOSPI reached an all-time high of 9114.55 points on June 22 when SK Hynix's market cap exceeded Samsung Electronics, then dropped 20% to 7291.91 by July 9.
Why does Hana Securities recommend holding semiconductor stocks?
Hana Securities stated that historical patterns after the dot-com bubble collapse (after September 2001), global financial crisis (after October 2008), Fed rate hikes (after September 2022), and tariff announcements (after April 2025) show that sectors leading previous bull markets tend to drive index rebounds with relatively higher returns.
