JPMorgan Targets S&P 500 at 9,000 by Mid-2027; History Warns High Returns Hard to Sustain

According to JPMorgan Chase's latest report on May 25, the S&P 500 could reach 9,000 by mid-2027 under an upside scenario, driven by sustained tech capex cycles, expanding AI-related profit contributions, and improved market risk appetite. The move would represent roughly 20% upside from current levels.

However, SimCorp research data highlights a historical pattern: since 1926, U.S. equities have achieved only three instances of consecutive four-year annualized returns exceeding 15%. Following three consecutive years of 20%+ returns, the fourth-year average return drops to 3.9%, well below the historical average of 11.8%.