Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating on SpaceX (SPCX) with a $300 price target ahead of the company's lockup expiry on Aug. 6, 2026, according to analyst Adam Jonas, who described SpaceX as 'uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.' The brokerage cited a 'disconnect' between growing bearish sentiment and the company's 'largely unchanged' fundamentals as an attractive entry point at current levels. At the time of writing, SPCX shares were trading 4.7% lower and heading towards their third straight weekly decline. Lockup periods restrict early investors from selling shares immediately after a company goes public; many investors expect SpaceX shares to fall to $100 once the Aug. 6, 2026 lockup expires, allowing early shareholders to sell their stakes. SpaceX shares debuted at $135 on June 12, surged above $225 during their first week of trading, but have since fallen more than 50% from their peak and shed over 30% since the debut session.
Morgan Stanley Reiterates $300 Price Target Ahead of Aug. 6 Lockup Expiry
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated the firm's Overweight rating on SpaceX stocks and maintained the $300 price target, which implies a 166% upside potential from current levels. The brokerage stated that if the stock crashes to $100, it would be pricing in little or no value for its AI business while also undervaluing its space launch and connectivity businesses. Jonas described SpaceX as 'uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.'
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens stated in a report on Friday that a 'wave' of selling is likely once the lockup period expires. 'We believe that most of the available shares will come to market, because the existing sellers have low-cost basis and long holding periods,' Owens said.
HSBC initiated coverage on Friday with a Hold rating and a $115 price target. The firm said SpaceX remains the clear leader in commercial space launches, supported by its strong execution, technological leadership, and expanding space ecosystem, while remaining cautious about valuing long-term opportunities such as space-based data centers and the lunar economy.
SpaceX Expected to Report Quarterly Results on August 4
SpaceX is expected to post its first quarterly results since going public on August 4, with revenue estimated at $6.8 billion and a loss of $0.22 per share, according to Fiscal.ai.
Retail Sentiment Remains Bearish Ahead of Lockup Expiry
Retail sentiment surrounding SPCX on Stocktwits remained bearish over the past 24 hours, amid high message volumes. One user stated there would be 'endless selling pressure' once the lock-up period expires. Another user said the stock is not worth buying until it hits $50 early next year 'once all insider shares unlock and sell off.'
FAQ
What did Morgan Stanley say about SpaceX stocks ahead of the lockup expiry?
Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating on SpaceX with a $300 price target ahead of the Aug. 6, 2026 lockup expiry. Analyst Adam Jonas described SpaceX as 'uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI' and cited a disconnect between bearish sentiment and the company's largely unchanged fundamentals as an attractive entry point.
When is SpaceX expected to report its quarterly results?
SpaceX is expected to post its first quarterly results since going public on August 4, with revenue estimated at $6.8 billion and a loss of $0.22 per share, according to Fiscal.ai.
What is the current sentiment among retail investors on SpaceX stocks?
Retail sentiment surrounding SPCX on Stocktwits remained bearish over the past 24 hours, with users citing endless selling pressure once the lockup period expires on Aug. 6, 2026. The stock was trading 4.7% lower at the time of writing and has shed over 30% since its debut session.
