Kim Byung-yeon, researcher at NH Investment & Securities, projected on the 20th that the KOSPI floor stands at 6000 points despite the index falling over 25% from its peak this month. The assessment came during a press conference in Yeouido, Seoul, where Kim stated that even accounting for current negative factors, the index would struggle to drop below 6000. The projection is based on a price-to-book ratio (PBR) range of 1.3x to 1.4x, which Kim described as an appropriate bottom level amid overlapping concerns including semiconductor sector peak-out discussions, China-related AI model uncertainties, and US-Iran geopolitical tensions.
NH Investment & Securities Projects KOSPI Floor at 6000 Points
Kim stated that discussions about semiconductor sector peak-out remain premature. He explained that a forward PBR of 1.3x to 1.4x represents an appropriate "rock bottom" level, which translates to KOSPI 6000 points. Kim added that rather than remaining at bottom levels for an extended period, the KOSPI would gradually recover as investors assess whether big tech revenue growth rates remain solid next week. He noted that profit-taking could emerge around the mid-8000 level due to investors caught at peak levels.
VKOSPI Volatility Attributed to Supply-Demand Factors
The VKOSPI (KOSPI200 volatility index) surged to 96.94 on the 29th of last month on a closing basis, exceeding levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. Kim analyzed that supply-demand factors played a much larger role than fundamental factors. He connected this to financial authorities' additional restrictions on leveraged products, explaining that as investors purchase leverage, liquidity providers buy underlying stocks and hedge with futures. Kim projected that volatility would decline as the scale of these transactions shrinks.
Semiconductor Export Levels Reach $2+ Billion Daily
Kim emphasized that while semiconductor daily export growth rates may slow and converge toward zero next year, the actual export amount itself has jumped to over $2 billion per day on average, compared to the $700-800 million level of the past. He stated that last year's KOSPI net profit recorded 217 trillion won, this year's market generates 759 trillion won, and next year's market is scheduled to change into one earning 1,000 trillion won, questioning whether it would return to 217 trillion won.
Hyperscaler Capex Projected at $758 Billion
Despite recent global semiconductor adjustments, Kim assessed that hyperscalers' capital expenditure (CapEx) reduction risks remain limited, with low probability of investment cuts being announced in upcoming second-quarter earnings reports. Kim projected that five hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle) would pursue AI infrastructure capex of $758 billion this year, an 82.3% surge from the previous year. Regarding SK Hynix's long-term supply agreement (LTA) application, Kim acknowledged concerns that it might represent discounted contracts, which fueled semiconductor peak-out worries, but emphasized that LTA would confirm stability for mid-to-long-term performance.
Foreign Investor Selling Pressure Expected to Ease
Kim projected that the large-scale net selling flow from foreign investors weighing on the domestic stock market would subside. He cited the foreign ownership ratio in KOSPI semiconductor sectors falling to minimum levels, which would gradually ease net selling pressure. Kim stated that current negative factors closely resemble those experienced in March-April, drawing parallels to Iran war concerns and turbo quant-triggered semiconductor peak-out controversies at that time, suggesting the need to recall learning effects from that period.
FAQ
What floor level did NH Investment & Securities project for KOSPI on the 20th?
NH Investment & Securities researcher Kim Byung-yeon projected the KOSPI floor at 6000 points during a press conference on the 20th. This projection is based on a forward price-to-book ratio (PBR) range of 1.3x to 1.4x, which Kim described as an appropriate bottom level even when accounting for current negative factors including semiconductor peak-out concerns, China-related AI model uncertainties, and US-Iran geopolitical tensions.
How much did semiconductor daily export levels reach according to the analysis?
Kim emphasized that semiconductor daily export amounts have jumped to over $2 billion per day on average, compared to the historical level of $700-800 million. While daily export growth rates may slow and converge toward zero next year, Kim stressed that the actual export amount level itself has fundamentally changed from the past.
What capex projection did NH Investment & Securities provide for hyperscalers?
Kim projected that five hyperscalers—Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle—would pursue AI infrastructure capital expenditure of $758 billion this year, representing an 82.3% surge from the previous year. He assessed that hyperscalers' capex reduction risks remain limited despite recent global semiconductor adjustments.
