Nvidia Stock Hits 5-Year Valuation Low at $212; Analyst Sees $280 Upside

According to Morningstar analyst Brian Colello, Nvidia's valuation has dropped to a 5-year low as the stock trades at $212 amid 2026 gains of only 10%, creating long-term investment opportunities. Colello estimates Nvidia's fair value at near $280 based on 2029 estimated revenue at 16 times forward multiple, implying the market has priced in excessive pessimism about post-2027 growth stagnation.

Nvidia's EV/EBITDA multiple currently stands at 17 times next year's expected earnings, compared to a 5-year average of 36 times, marking the lowest level since July 2021. By contrast, AMD trades at 53 times next year's estimated earnings and maintains growth stock status, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has gained 71% year-to-date.