NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has risen only about 5% year-to-date in 2026, while the S&P 500 index has gained nearly 10% over the same period — a clear divergence. This underperformance contrasts sharply with NVIDIA's historic streak of significantly outpacing the broader market in 2023, 2024, and 2025. NVIDIA's forward price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at approximately 21.7x, roughly in line with the overall valuation of the S&P 500, marking one of the lowest valuation phases in recent years.
2026 NVDA Stock Performance Comparison: 5% Gain Trails S&P 500's 10%
According to market data from early July 2026, NVIDIA (NVDA) shares are up about 5% year-to-date; compared to the S&P 500's nearly 10% gain over the same period, NVIDIA can no longer sustain its three-year streak of outperforming the market. In 2023, 2024, and 2025, NVIDIA was consistently one of the strongest individual stocks of the year; however, the 5% gain in 2026 looks especially lackluster against the triple-digit returns that investors had grown accustomed to over the past three years.
NVIDIA Forward P/E Falls to 21.7x: Valuation Now on Par with S&P 500
NVIDIA's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently around 21.7x, close to the S&P 500's overall forward valuation of about 21x; this means the market is now pricing NVIDIA shares roughly in line with the average market level, no longer reflecting the growth premium typically seen historically.
The Motley Fool analyst Keithen Drury noted in a report that this valuation level suggests the market believes NVIDIA will only match average market performance under 2026 growth expectations — but this contrasts with Wall Street analysts' forecasts for the company's growth in the following years.
Wall Street Analyst Growth Forecasts & AI CapEx Scale: Consensus Data of 82% in 2026 and 41% in 2027
According to data cited in The Motley Fool report, Wall Street analysts currently forecast NVIDIA revenue growth of 82% for full-year 2026 and 41% growth in 2027; this implies that if the current stock price is evaluated against 2027 earnings expectations, NVIDIA's valuation appears relatively cheap.
On the capital expenditure front, the four major AI hyperscaler data center operators (including Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta) plan to invest approximately $650 billion in data center CapEx in 2026; NVIDIA estimates this figure could exceed $1 trillion in 2027. These expenditures are key demand drivers for NVIDIA's GPUs and related hardware. The above are analyst forecasts; official financial disclosures from each company take precedence.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why Has NVIDIA Stock Underperformed the S&P 500 in 2026?
According to a report by The Motley Fool analyst Keithen Drury, NVIDIA's stock price has risen only about 5% year-to-date in 2026, primarily due to a market repricing following the AI investment frenzy, combined with NVIDIA's forward P/E falling to around 21.7x — close to the S&P 500's overall level — reflecting a more conservative market pricing of its growth premium; specific stock prices are subject to real-time market quotes.
How Does NVIDIA's Current Valuation Compare to Historical Levels?
According to YCharts data cited in the report, NVIDIA's forward P/E is currently around 21.7x, roughly in line with the S&P 500's forward P/E of about 21x; this represents a low valuation phase in NVIDIA's history, as its forward P/E has typically been significantly above the market average in recent years to reflect its exceptional growth expectations.
What Are Wall Street's Growth Forecasts for NVIDIA Over the Next Two Years?
According to Wall Street consensus cited in The Motley Fool report, analysts currently forecast NVIDIA revenue growth of approximately 82% for full-year 2026 and 41% growth in 2027; the above are consensus estimates, subject to actual financial reports and the latest analyst forecast updates, and do not constitute investment advice.
