Pound Sterling May Decline to 1.32 vs Dollar by Autumn if UK Doesn't Raise Rates, Monex Says

According to Monex Europe, on June 4, pound sterling may decline in the coming months if the Bank of England does not raise rates and political risks in the UK rise. The analyst notes that recent weak UK economic data has not supported market expectations for rate hikes this year. The bank expects the pound to fall from its current 1.3455 against the dollar to 1.32, and from 1.1559 against the euro to 1.11 by autumn 2026.

Monex anticipates no rate increases are likely before 2027, while rate cuts remain possible before year-end.