Samsung Electro-Mechanics saw its stock price decline over 40% from recent highs, but Hana Securities forecasts a rebound driven by prolonged supply shortages in multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) and flip-chip ball grid array (FCBGA) substrates. Analyst Kim Min-kyung issued a report on the 20th maintaining a BUY rating and a 300만원 price target ahead of the company's earnings announcement scheduled for the 30th. The forecast is grounded in persistent capacity constraints: MLCC suppliers including Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics have operated above 90% utilization for four consecutive quarters without large-scale capacity expansion, while FCBGA substrate manufacturing difficulty is rising sharply due to AI accelerator performance improvements requiring larger, multi-layered packages.
Hana Securities Maintains 300만원 Price Target and BUY Rating
Hana Securities maintained its BUY investment opinion and 300만원 price target for Samsung Electro-Mechanics. Kim Min-kyung stated in the report that "comments from big tech and competitors ahead of the earnings announcement on the 30th will serve as catalysts for a stock price rebound." The analyst noted that "given the absence of large-scale capacity expansion by MLCC suppliers, there is a high possibility of exceeding past peak profit margins," and added that "the package solution division is also experiencing a rapid increase in technical difficulty due to chip performance improvements, making a prolonged supply shortage cycle highly likely."
MLCC Utilization Above 90% for Four Consecutive Quarters
MLCC industry conditions are expected to improve further. Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics have maintained MLCC utilization rates above 90% for four consecutive quarters, yet large-scale capacity expansion by suppliers has not materialized. Production of high-capacity, high-reliability MLCC for AI servers is prioritized, which has reduced actual supply capacity including general-purpose products. The forecast anticipates tighter supply-demand conditions in the second half with the addition of NVIDIA's Rubin new product and iPhone launches.
FCBGA Substrate Manufacturing Difficulty Rises with AI Performance Demands
FCBGA substrates are expected to face continued structural supply constraints. As AI accelerator performance improves, package substrates are becoming larger and more multi-layered, significantly increasing manufacturing difficulty. The analysis explains that supply expansion will remain limited despite capacity additions by global substrate manufacturers due to these technical challenges.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics Revenue Forecast 13.4조원 for This Year
Hana Securities projected Samsung Electro-Mechanics' revenue at 13조4274억원 and operating profit at 1조7140억원 for this year. Next year, the firm is expected to record revenue of 16조783억원 and operating profit of 3조3918억원, representing a 97.9% year-over-year increase in operating profit. Operating margin is forecast to improve from 12.8% this year to 21.1% next year.
FAQ
What is Hana Securities' price target for Samsung Electro-Mechanics stocks?
Hana Securities maintains a 300만원 price target and BUY rating for Samsung Electro-Mechanics. Analyst Kim Min-kyung issued the report on the 20th ahead of the earnings announcement scheduled for the 30th.
Why does Hana Securities expect Samsung Electro-Mechanics stocks to rebound?
The rebound forecast is based on prolonged supply shortages in MLCC and FCBGA substrates. MLCC suppliers including Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics have operated above 90% utilization for four consecutive quarters without large-scale capacity expansion, while FCBGA substrate manufacturing difficulty is rising due to AI accelerator performance improvements.
What are the revenue and profit forecasts for Samsung Electro-Mechanics?
Hana Securities projects this year's revenue at 13조4274억원 and operating profit at 1조7140억원. Next year, revenue is expected to reach 16조783억원 with operating profit of 3조3918억원, a 97.9% year-over-year increase, and operating margin improving from 12.8% to 21.1%.
