Securities firms are closely monitoring Samsung Electronics' Q2 preliminary earnings announcement scheduled for tomorrow, with the consensus operating profit forecast reaching 85.0494 trillion won, a 1700% year-on-year increase. The heightened expectations follow semiconductor price surges driven by supply-demand imbalances, with analysts citing aggressive pricing strategies and HBM advancements as key revenue drivers. Market attention centers on whether Samsung can exceed the elevated consensus amid recent volatility, as the stock fell 8.8% over the past week and 14.6% from its peak, reflecting both AI demand concerns and memory upcycle peak-out fears.
Meritz Securities Forecasts 90.1 Trillion Won Operating Profit, Raises Target Price to 500,000 Won
Meritz Securities projected Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit at 90.1 trillion won and raised its target price from 420,000 won to 500,000 won. Kim Sun-woo, a Meritz Securities researcher, stated the DS (Device Solutions) division's operating profit before performance bonus provisions is estimated at 109.5 trillion won. Kim said memory prices will continue rising through year-end and Samsung's record-breaking earnings trend will persist throughout the year. The researcher emphasized that memory supply remains insufficient to meet demand growth at least through Q4, noting that structural price increases are inevitable in the era of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) investment competition.
Samsung Securities and Eugene Investment Project Results Near Consensus
Samsung Securities forecast Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit at 86 trillion won, slightly above consensus, maintaining its 500,000 won target price. Lee Jong-wook, a Samsung Securities researcher, explained the forecast reflects an upward revision of commodity DRAM's average selling price (ASP) growth assumption from 50% to 55% quarter-on-quarter, incorporating the steeper server DRAM price increases since last month and additional NAND profitability improvements. Lee stated current investor concerns are noise rather than fundamental damage and identified potential catalysts as the company's long-term agreement (LTA) details, next year's HBM pricing agreements, and more aggressive shareholder return policies.
Eugene Investment Securities projected Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit at 83.1 trillion won, below consensus, while maintaining its 560,000 won target price. Son In-jun, a Eugene Securities researcher, estimated Samsung led aggressive pricing policies and achieved higher blended ASP levels compared to competitors, with HBM also showing more favorable blended ASP through preemptive HBM4 shipments.
Market Focus Shifts to Whether Results Exceed Elevated Expectations
Han Ji-young, a Kiwoom Securities researcher, noted the Samsung Electronics Q2 operating profit consensus stands at 85 trillion won, indicating record-breaking results are anticipated, but the market's actual expectation level may be above 85 trillion won. Han stated if Samsung's earnings surprise intensity is weak, selling pressure may emerge from a perception of catalyst exhaustion. However, Han emphasized Samsung fell 8.8% over the past week and 14.6% from its peak due to AI demand concerns and memory upcycle peak-out worries. The researcher analyzed that while past earnings announcements were driven purely by expectations, this time both expectations and anxiety coexist, making a market relief scenario more appropriate than a sell-on-news outcome following the preliminary results.
FAQ
What is the consensus forecast for Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit?
The consensus operating profit forecast for Samsung Electronics' Q2 is 85.0494 trillion won, representing a 1700% year-on-year increase, according to FnGuide data.
Why did Meritz Securities raise its target price for Samsung Electronics stocks?
Meritz Securities raised its target price from 420,000 won to 500,000 won based on a Q2 operating profit forecast of 90.1 trillion won, citing continued memory price increases through year-end and insufficient supply to meet demand growth through at least Q4.
