On May 27, forex dealers in the Seoul foreign exchange market forecast that the USD-KRW exchange rate will move around the mid-to-late 1,450 won range based on supply and demand. Over the weekend, Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, stated that Iran is 'in dialogue with the United States,' easing Middle East tensions and leading to declines in international oil prices and the dollar index. Dealers expect the dollar-won pair to extend losses if SK Hynix ADR-related currency exchange volumes or exporter negotiation volumes emerge, though further declines below the 1,450 won level may face resistance given the recent sharp drop in the exchange rate.
Iran-US Dialogue Eases Middle East Tensions, Oil Prices and Dollar Index Decline
Over the weekend, Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, stated that Iran is 'in dialogue with the United States.' This development eased Middle East tensions, leading to declines in international oil prices and the dollar index. Dealers anticipate that the 'dollar weakness-won strength' trend will persist, with potential downward pressure on the dollar-won pair if SK Hynix American Depositary Receipt (ADR)-related currency exchange volumes or exporter negotiation volumes are released into the market. However, given the significant recent decline in the exchange rate, dealers view further drops below the 1,450 won level as somewhat difficult.
On the morning of May 27, the dollar-won opened at 1,459.90 won and traded in a range-bound manner as the market searched for direction.
NY NDF Market Quotes USD-KRW 1-Month at 1,459.10 Won
In the New York Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) market, the USD-KRW 1-month contract was last quoted at 1,459.10 won (MID). Considering the recent 1-month swap point of -0.30 won, this represents a decline of 7.20 won compared to the previous Seoul foreign exchange market spot close of 1,466.60 won.
The expected trading range for the dollar-won exchange rate on May 27 was forecast at 1,450.00-1,465.00 won.
Three Bank Dealers Forecast USD-KRW Range of 1,450.00-1,465.00 Won
Bank A Dealer
News that the United States and Iran have halted airstrikes raises expectations that foreign investors will shift to net stock purchases in the domestic equity market. However, as low-price buying interest continues to flow in at lower levels, bidirectional supply and demand are expected. Despite dollar weakness, the lower bound is likely to be limited around the early 1,450 won range.
Expected range: 1,450.00-1,462.00 won.
Bank B Dealer
Given the significant recent decline in the exchange rate, low-price buying interest may flow in and support the lower bound. As the United States and Iran have halted airstrikes and global dollar strength pressure has eased, the dollar-won pair is expected to respond more sensitively to supply and demand.
Expected range: 1,450.00-1,465.00 won.
Bank C Dealer
International oil prices fell on expectations that the United States and Iran may resume dialogue, further easing risk-off sentiment. However, the heightened tariff risks associated with US President Donald Trump remain a factor that increases market vigilance. As low-price buying interest flows in amid perceptions of a bottom, the lower bound is likely to face some resistance.
Expected range: 1,450.00-1,463.00 won.
FAQ
What did Seoul forex dealers forecast for the USD-KRW exchange rate on May 27?
On May 27, forex dealers in the Seoul foreign exchange market forecast that the USD-KRW exchange rate will move around the mid-to-late 1,450 won range based on supply and demand. The expected trading range was forecast at 1,450.00-1,465.00 won.
Why did international oil prices and the dollar index decline over the weekend?
Over the weekend, Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, stated that Iran is 'in dialogue with the United States.' This eased Middle East tensions, leading to declines in international oil prices and the dollar index.
What was the NY NDF market quote for USD-KRW 1-month on May 27?
In the New York Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) market, the USD-KRW 1-month contract was last quoted at 1,459.10 won (MID). Considering the recent 1-month swap point of -0.30 won, this represented a decline of 7.20 won compared to the previous Seoul foreign exchange market spot close of 1,466.60 won.
