Shinhan Investment & Securities analyst Kim Sung-hwan on the 28th set an S&P 500 target range of 7,200 to 8,000, recommending investors adopt a neutral approach next month before reassessing leading stocks in late August. The lower bound of 7,200 represents the 100-day moving average, which Kim expects to hold due to solid earnings-driven bullish structure, while the upper bound of 8,000 applies the past three-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times to the projected third-quarter-end 12-month forward earnings per share of 380. Kim attributed the cautious August outlook to seasonal trading volume weakness during the summer vacation period and the absence of near-term upside catalysts, noting that leading stock pullbacks have historically concentrated in July-August since technology stocks gained market dominance in 2020.
Shinhan Sets S&P 500 Target Range 7,200-8,000 Based on Moving Average and Earnings Multiples
Kim Sung-hwan presented the S&P 500 target range with the lower bound of 7,200 positioned at the 100-day moving average. The analyst stated the earnings-driven bullish structure remains solid enough to prevent a break below this technical level. The upper bound of 8,000 derives from multiplying the anticipated third-quarter-end 12-month forward earnings per share of 380 by the past three-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times. Kim projected a quiet upward trend for the remaining third quarter, stating that leading stocks will likely rise only after gradually building a rebound base and reducing volatility rather than staging a V-shaped recovery, assuming no significant upside triggers emerge.
Leading Stocks Expected to Rebound in September-October Following Historical Seasonal Pattern
Kim identified September-October as the probable timing for leading stock strength. The analyst noted that since 2020, when technology stocks gained dominance in equity markets, pullbacks in leading stocks and rallies in neglected stocks have coincidentally concentrated during the July-August summer vacation period. Kim stated that September-October historically shows a 92% win rate for leading stocks on a seasonal basis. The analyst explained that leading stocks tend to gain prominence when trading volume is strong, while the summer vacation season typically suffers from insufficient volume, with volume recovery patterns showing strength from September onward.
![Chart analysis supporting S&P 500 target range and seasonal patterns]()
Analyst Recommends Neutral August Positioning Before Late-Month AI CAPEX Reassessment
Kim advised investors to start early August with a neutral sector composition that reduces active positions, then reassess the path for leading stocks in artificial intelligence capital expenditure to return to leadership as the month ends. The analyst synthesized the seasonal volume patterns and historical pullback timing into this short-term tactical approach. Kim emphasized that the combination of summer vacation trading volume weakness and the absence of clear upside catalysts supports the neutral positioning strategy for next month before repositioning toward leading stocks in late August.
FAQ
What S&P 500 target range did Shinhan Investment & Securities set on the 28th?
Shinhan Investment & Securities analyst Kim Sung-hwan on the 28th set an S&P 500 target range of 7,200 to 8,000. The lower bound of 7,200 corresponds to the 100-day moving average, which the analyst expects to hold based on solid earnings-driven bullish structure. The upper bound of 8,000 applies the past three-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times to the projected third-quarter-end 12-month forward earnings per share of 380.
Why did the analyst recommend a neutral approach in August?
Kim Sung-hwan recommended a neutral approach in August due to seasonal trading volume weakness during the summer vacation period and the absence of significant upside triggers. The analyst noted that since 2020, leading stock pullbacks have historically concentrated in July-August, while September-October shows a 92% win rate for leading stocks as trading volume recovers. Kim advised starting early August with reduced active positions in a neutral sector composition, then reassessing artificial intelligence capital expenditure leading stocks in late August.
