Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares confirmed financial data on May 28: Q3 revenue of $10.24 billion; adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.84, about 35% above market expectations. Earnings guidance significantly exceeded expectations, triggering an 18% one-day premarket rally on May 6; thereafter, there was a pullback through May 28. As of the end of May, analysts’ average target price was $35.73 to $37.62.
SMCI Q3 2026 Confirmed Financial Results and Guidance Adjustment
SMCI Q3 2026 confirmed financial results: revenue $10.24 billion (year-over-year increase of 123%, below analysts’ expectations); adjusted EPS of $0.84 (35% above expectations); FY2026 full-year performance guidance raised to $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion (about 82% year-over-year).
In its guidance, management confirmed assumptions that the supply of key components (including CPUs) is stable. A key feature of SMCI’s confirmed financial structure is that operating leverage growth is faster than revenue growth. The major outperformance of guidance more than offset the situation where Q3 revenue was slightly below expectations—this was the main driver behind the 18% premarket surge on May 6.
Three Key Market Background Factors for the Premarket Pullback on May 28
Based on market analysts’ confirmed assessments, the three background factors for the premarket pullback on May 28 are as follows:
First: Valuation reset—after the stock rose 18% in a single day, some traders confirmed that relative to recent free cash flow, valuation pressure for AI server-related expectations is emerging. With the expectation of 82% growth in FY2026, there is limited room for execution deviations.
Second: Supply chain assumption risk—management’s forward-looking guidance assumes that the supply of key components such as CPUs remains stable. If shipments of Intel or AMD processors are interrupted due to geopolitical tensions or production delays, it would force downward adjustments to earnings expectations.
Third: Sector rotation pressure—AI infrastructure and the semiconductor sector overall faced profit-taking, and some investors rotated into dividend stocks.
Analysts’ Confirmed Target Price Range and Consensus Ratings
As of the end of May 2026, analysts’ confirmed target prices for SMCI are as follows: average target price of $35.73 to $37.62, with a consensus rating of neutral to hold. Mizuho’s May 12 target price was $36.00, below the peak of the May rebound; the bull-case highest target price is $64.00; the bear-case lowest target price is $24.00.
The consensus assessment confirmed by analysts for May 2026 is: “SMCI’s strong gross margin and excellent operating leverage make it a main beneficiary of sustained AI infrastructure investment, but the current valuation requires it to execute performance nearly perfectly before at least Q2 of 2027.”
Frequently Asked Questions
By how much did SMCI’s Q3 EPS exceed expectations, and by how much did the full-year performance guidance change?
SMCI’s adjusted Q3 EPS was $0.84, about 35% above the market’s expected $0.62. The full-year FY2026 performance guidance was raised from $36.0 billion previously to $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion (about 82% year-over-year). Management confirmed that the outperformance of earnings guidance exceeded expectations and offset the situation where Q3 revenue was slightly below expectations.
What were the market background factors for the premarket pullback on May 28 after the big 18% jump on May 6?
According to analysts’ confirmed assessments, the three main background factors are: valuation reset pressure after an 18% one-day rally; management’s guidance assumptions that CPU supply is stable and that if it is disrupted, expectations would need to be lowered; and profit-taking and rotation pressure across the AI infrastructure sector overall.
What are analysts’ consensus target price and rating for SMCI?
As of the end of May 2026, analysts’ consensus rating for SMCI is neutral to hold, with an average target price of $35.73 to $37.62. The target price range is from $24.00 (bear case) to $64.00 (bull case). Mizuho confirmed a target price of $36.00 on May 12.
