TD Cowen cut its price target for Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA), the David Bailey-led bitcoin treasury company, by 58% to $17 from a split-adjusted $40, citing pressure from bitcoin's decline on the company's debt-heavy capital structure, according to a Monday research note from analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete. The bank maintained its Buy rating on the Nasdaq-listed stock, with the new target implying nearly 275% upside from NAKA's current $4.65 price. Nakamoto underwent a 1-for-40 reverse split in May, making TD's previous $1 target equivalent to $40 on the current basis. The revision reflects bitcoin's roughly 26% decline this year and Nakamoto's leveraged exposure through debt and preferred securities. Nakamoto currently holds 4,467 BTC worth around $290 million, ranking as the 22nd-largest publicly traded bitcoin holder according to Bitcoin Treasuries.
TD Cowen Revises Nakamoto Price Target to $17 with Bitcoin Base Case
TD Cowen's revised base case assumed bitcoin can climb back to $100,000 by the end of 2026, which is roughly 25% off its $126,000 all-time high recorded last October. The firm also expects Nakamoto to suspend additional bitcoin (BTC) purchases until 2027. "We continue to view bitcoin holdings as the primary driver of value," Vitanza and Navarrete wrote in the research note. The analysts said Nakamoto's debt and preferred securities make its common shares more sensitive to changes in bitcoin's price. They valued its projected year-end bitcoin holdings at about $521 million, though those obligations reduce the value left for common shareholders.
Nakamoto Completes $45 Million Debt Repayment and Strategic Pivot
TD Cowen views Nakamoto's recent balance sheet moves favorably. The company repaid approximately $45 million of debt, extended $105 million of principal through June 2027, lowered its borrowing costs and authorized a share repurchase program of up to $25 million. The firm also pointed to Nakamoto completing the closure of its legacy healthcare clinics last month and is now focused on bitcoin media, asset management and advisory services.
NAKA Stock Down 71% Year-to-Date Amid Bitcoin Decline
NAKA was trading at $4.65 on Monday, down more than 4.5% on the day. The stock has fallen over 71% this year, compared with bitcoin's roughly 26% decline over the same period.
FAQ
Why did TD Cowen cut Nakamoto's stock price target by 58%?
TD Cowen cut Nakamoto's price target from a split-adjusted $40 to $17, citing pressure from bitcoin's decline on the company's debt-heavy capital structure. The analysts noted that Nakamoto's debt and preferred securities make its common shares more sensitive to changes in bitcoin's price.
How much bitcoin does Nakamoto Inc. currently hold?
Nakamoto currently holds 4,467 BTC worth around $290 million, making it the 22nd-largest publicly traded bitcoin holder according to Bitcoin Treasuries.
What strategic changes has Nakamoto implemented recently?
Nakamoto repaid approximately $45 million of debt, extended $105 million of principal through June 2027, lowered its borrowing costs, and authorized a share repurchase program of up to $25 million. The company also completed the closure of its legacy healthcare clinics last month and is now focused on bitcoin media, asset management and advisory services.
