Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and $36 price target on TeraWulf (WULF) after the company signed a $19 billion, 20-year lease with Anthropic on Monday and sold its majority stake in the Abernathy joint venture to a Fluidstack-led investor group. The lease covers 401 megawatts of IT load at TeraWulf's Justified Data campus in Hawesville, Kentucky, delivering better economics than Bernstein had modeled, with an average annual yield of $2.4 million per IT megawatt compared with the firm's earlier $1.9 million assumption. The two transactions mark a shift in TeraWulf's business model toward full ownership, direct customer relationships, and complete operational control as the bitcoin miner diversifies into AI infrastructure.
Anthropic Lease Delivers 401 MW at Kentucky Campus
The Anthropic lease is TeraWulf's third AI deal, joining earlier agreements with Core42 and Google-backstopped Fluidstack, according to Bernstein. The 20-year term is the longest signed by an emerging AI infrastructure player among diversifying bitcoin miners, most of whom are securing 10- to 15-year base contracts, Bernstein said. The contract carries two five-year renewal options that could extend it another decade. Initial capacity will come online in the second half of 2027, with full delivery by early 2028, according to Bernstein.
TeraWulf's AI orderbook now stands at roughly $27 billion in contracted revenue against about 839 megawatts of IT load, spanning deals of 10 to 20 years, Bernstein said. The Block reported the agreement is expected to generate about $19 billion in revenue.
TeraWulf Shifts to Direct Customer Ownership Model
Bernstein flagged the two transactions as a change in TeraWulf's business model toward full ownership, direct customer relationships, and complete operational control. TeraWulf controls about 3.6 gigawatts of power assets across New York, Kentucky, and Maryland, a runway Bernstein expects to support 250 to 500 megawatts of new critical IT load each year.
TeraWulf Sells Abernathy JV Stake for $530 Million
TeraWulf agreed to sell its 50.1% stake in the Abernathy JV for $530 million, a roughly 18% return on the $450 million equity stake it invested, according to Bernstein. The joint venture was established in October 2025 to develop a 168-megawatt data center campus in Abernathy, Texas, with Fluidstack as both partner and anchor tenant. The buyer group is led by Fluidstack.
Payment comes in three installments: $250 million within 14 days of signing, $150 million by the end of 2026, and the remaining roughly $130 million by April 30, 2027, subject to adjustment. TeraWulf plans to redeploy the proceeds into fully owned AI infrastructure buildouts, Bernstein said.
Bernstein Projects AI Revenue Growth to $1.7 Billion by CY30
The improved Anthropic yield is offset by the loss of Abernathy JV income, leaving Bernstein's steady-state estimates little changed. The firm raised its CY30 adjusted EBITDA estimate by about $43 million after both adjustments.
Bernstein expects net AI revenue to climb from $209 million in CY26 to $1.7 billion by CY30, a compound annual growth rate of 70%. Bernstein also projects TeraWulf's HPC EBITDA to grow at a 94% CAGR over the same span, reaching $1.5 billion by CY30, with margins stabilizing around 85%.
Bernstein Values TeraWulf at $36 Per Share
Bernstein values TeraWulf at 21 times one-year forward EV/EBITDA on its CY30 steady-state estimate, discounted to a target enterprise value of $25 billion, arriving at the $36 target after adjusting for $6.6 billion in net debt.
The analysts flagged customer concentration as a downside risk, noting the orderbook rests on a handful of tenants that the company will need to diversify over time. WULF shares closed at $22.21 on Monday, up 4.9%, according to The Block's stock data.
FAQ
What did TeraWulf announce on Monday regarding Anthropic?
TeraWulf signed a $19 billion, 20-year lease with Anthropic covering 401 megawatts of IT load at its Justified Data campus in Hawesville, Kentucky. The lease delivers an average annual yield of $2.4 million per IT megawatt, higher than Bernstein's earlier $1.9 million assumption.
When will the Anthropic capacity come online?
Initial capacity is expected to come online in the second half of 2027, with full delivery by early 2028, according to Bernstein.
How much did TeraWulf receive for its Abernathy JV stake?
TeraWulf agreed to sell its 50.1% stake in the Abernathy joint venture for $530 million, representing a roughly 18% return on the $450 million equity stake it invested. Payment comes in three installments: $250 million within 14 days of signing, $150 million by the end of 2026, and roughly $130 million by April 30, 2027.
