Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock ended 1% higher at $379.71 on Friday, snapping a three-session losing streak, but Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, warned the EV maker may continue to trail the Nasdaq until its unsupervised robotaxi fleet scales beyond around 40 vehicles. Black noted Tesla is down 15% year-to-date, compared with a 16% gain for the Nasdaq 100, as the company's unsupervised autonomous-driving rollout "continues to sputter." The stock is on pace for its worst month in over a year, with Black questioning Dan Ives' $600 bull case and stating Tesla's unsupervised fleet appears stalled at approximately 40 vehicles.
Tesla Stock Down 15% Year-to-Date as Nasdaq Gains 16%
Black noted on X that Tesla is down 15% year-to-date, compared with a 16% gain for the Nasdaq 100. Black took aim at Tesla bull Dan Ives' call that the stock is headed to $600, saying that the path depends heavily on whether Tesla can scale its unsupervised autonomy fleet. "We remain skeptical with TSLA's unsupervised autonomy fleet seemingly stalled at around 40 vehicles until efficacy improves," Black said.
Black added that some Tesla bulls are wrongly counting supervised vehicles, which use front-seat safety monitors, in their robotaxi fleet assumptions. Black called that "misleading."
Black Questions Scaling of 40-Vehicle Unsupervised Fleet
Black said that Tesla has underperformed the Nasdaq 100 over one, three and five-year periods. Over three years, Tesla is up 48% versus 95% for the index, while over five years it is up 67% versus 99%. "I expect TSLA to continue to underperform NDX until unsupervised autonomy scales," Black said. He said that Tesla may need to move from about 40 unsupervised vehicles to markets covering 50% of the U.S. population, citing a target that CEO Elon Musk laid out on Tesla's July 2025 earnings call.
Black does not expect that scale-up until Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) efficacy improves. He estimates Tesla's FSD efficacy is currently around 99%, or one intervention every 100 drives. In his view, Tesla needs to reach 99.99%, or one intervention every 10,000 drives, before unsupervised autonomy can scale decently.
Texas autonomous-vehicle registration data last month showed that Tesla had 42 authorized driverless vehicles in the state, compared with 577 for Alphabet-owned Waymo.
NHTSA Investigates Tesla Model 3 Crash in Katy, Texas
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened a special crash investigation into a Tesla Model 3 crash in Katy, Texas, that killed 76-year-old Martha Avila. Authorities said that the driver told investigators he had been using Tesla's partially automated driving systems when the vehicle left its lane and hit a home. Musk pushed back, saying that the crash "makes no sense" because "FSD drives slowly through neighborhood streets and this was a high speed crash."
Tesla Autopilot Vice President Ashok Elluswamy claimed that the driver manually overrode the self-driving mode by pressing the accelerator to 100%, reaching 73 mph during the crash. The driver's claim and Tesla executives' statements are still under investigation.
Tesla Forward P/E Ratio Reaches 180x
Black said that Tesla and other EV makers could benefit in the second quarter from "stubbornly high" gas prices, which may support deliveries. Tesla's consensus delivery estimates point to a 6% year-over-year gain in the second quarter and a 1% rise for 2026.
However, Black said EVs remain core to Tesla's business, accounting for 72% of gross profit, making a 200x P/E harder to defend, while earnings shrink and unsupervised autonomy remains stalled. Black also dismissed speculation that SpaceX could acquire Tesla as a "silly idea," citing potential dilution and governance concerns.
So far this year, Tesla's stock has lagged its "Magnificent Seven" peers, making it the group's third-worst performer, down about 16%. Tesla's forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 180x is by far the highest multiple among the Magnificent Seven stocks.
Stocktwits Sentiment Turns Bearish with 9% Message Volume Rise
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for TSLA was 'bearish' amid a 9% rise in 24-hour message volumes. The ticker's water base has also climbed just 2% over the past year, indicating modest retail interest in the stock.
FAQ
What did Gary Black say about Tesla's robotaxi fleet scaling?
Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, said Tesla's unsupervised autonomy fleet is "seemingly stalled at around 40 vehicles until efficacy improves." He stated he expects Tesla to continue to underperform the Nasdaq until unsupervised autonomy scales, and questioned Dan Ives' $600 bull case for the stock.
Why is NHTSA investigating a Tesla crash in Texas?
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened a special crash investigation into a Tesla Model 3 crash in Katy, Texas, that killed 76-year-old Martha Avila. Authorities said the driver told investigators he had been using Tesla's partially automated driving systems when the vehicle left its lane and hit a home.
How many autonomous vehicles does Tesla have in Texas compared to Waymo?
Texas autonomous-vehicle registration data last month showed that Tesla had 42 authorized driverless vehicles in the state, compared with 577 for Alphabet-owned Waymo.
