Atlas Capital CEO Reza Bundy told CoinDesk on June 4 at the Proof of Talk conference in Paris that Bitcoin’s estimated drop over the next six months could reach 70%, with a target price range of $26,000 to $30,000. He also said that in the long run, Bitcoin will reach $150,000 to $500,000, depending on the direction of the global economy.
Bundy’s Four Long-Term Economic Scenarios and Bitcoin Price Targets
The four long-term scenarios and their corresponding Bitcoin price targets listed by Bundy at the conference:
“Controlled Expansion” (40% probability): The global economy maintains steady growth and inflation; Bitcoin target range is $150,000 to $250,000
“Fiscal Dominance” (25% probability): Governments massively print money to repay debt and a high-inflation environment; Bitcoin target range is $250,000 to $500,000
“Global Conflict” (20% probability): A major security shock occurs in Taiwan or the Middle East. The price falls initially, but Bundy believes it will ultimately validate Bitcoin’s value as a neutral asset
“Deflationary Recession” (15% probability): Credit freezes weaken Bitcoin until central banks inject liquidity
Atlas Capital’s “Tech USD” Strategy and the USAF ETF
Bundy explained that Atlas currently executes its “Tech USD” strategy via a Nasdaq-listed ETF (ticker: USAF). It uses an AI-driven asset allocation model to dynamically adjust the weights among assets such as gold, food, real estate, and defense technology. According to TradingView data, USAF’s net assets are currently about $18 million, and its return since inception has been 8.7%.
Bundy plans to tokenize its tokens later this month and deploy them to public blockchains. On why it has not yet included Bitcoin in USAF, Bundy said: “We think the stock market will see a major pullback, and we don’t want to get caught in Bitcoin’s downside. Once the pullback happens, we will ultimately decide whether to include Bitcoin.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the basis for Bundy’s estimate that Bitcoin will drop 70%?
At the Proof of Talk conference, Bundy said his view is based on Roubini’s macroeconomic framework. He said that if the stock market’s decline reaches half of the drop in 2008, Bitcoin’s losses will be twice those of the stock market, and he provided a price target range of $26,000 to $30,000. This is Bundy’s personal macro scenario assessment and is not market consensus or an official forecast.
Who is Nouriel Roubini, and what is his stance on Bitcoin?
Roubini is Atlas Capital’s chief economist and a co-founder. He earned the “Dr. Doom” title for accurately predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. He has continued to be bearish on Bitcoin since 2017. Recently, in comments reported by Bloomberg, he called Bitcoin a “fake asset class” and a “purely speculative asset,” arguing it lacks fundamental value or real-world utility.
Are Bundy’s long-term bullish stance and Roubini’s stance contradictory?
Yes. Bundy explicitly stated in the conference that his view of Bitcoin’s long-term price range ($150,000 to $500,000) is at odds with his partner Roubini’s position. Bundy’s long-term optimism is based on declining trust stemming from rising government debt and money printing by central banks, while Roubini still maintains that Bitcoin lacks fundamental value.
