UBS Securities China industrial analyst Wang Feilei stated on May 19 that humanoid robots are currently at an early stage of intelligence development, with most products still completing tasks in controlled environments. Drawing a comparison to autonomous driving classification systems, current humanoid robots more closely resemble Level 3 (conditional automation) rather than higher stages. The analyst emphasized that industry maturity should not be measured solely by unit shipments, but rather by industrial scenario orders, repurchase rates, and certainty in upstream core components.
Current Development Stage and Constraints
Wang Feilei noted that humanoid robots face more complex physical-world tasks than autonomous driving systems. Current development is constrained by three factors: AI model capability, accumulated real-world data, and advancement of the robot's "brain." Until these issues are resolved, assessing industry maturity based purely on production volumes or prematurely discussing when humanoid robots will enter homes or achieve Robotics as a Service (RaaS) business models lacks meaningful foundation.
The analyst recommended 2025 as a critical year for humanoid robot development, suggesting investors closely monitor autonomous driving progress. "If autonomous driving achieves widespread Level 5 application, then our humanoid robot achieving general intelligence may not be far behind," Wang Feilei stated.
Global Supply Chain Development
Wang Feilei indicated that global humanoid robot manufacturers are accelerating supply chain deployment. Hardware supply chains remain concentrated in manufacturing-strong nations: Germany, Japan, South Korea, and China.
Recent industry partnerships confirm this trend. In November 2025, Schaeffler and German robotics company Neura Robotics announced a collaboration to jointly develop and supply key components for humanoid robots. Schaeffler also plans to integrate thousands of humanoid robots into its own production lines by 2035.
In January 2026, Boston Dynamics disclosed that Hyundai Mobis will supply actuators for the next-generation Atlas humanoid robot. The two companies will jointly establish a reliable component supply chain and accelerate actuator development and production.
2026 Market Forecast
UBS maintains a relatively conservative projection for 2026 global humanoid robot shipments at approximately 30,000 units. Under an extreme scenario of accelerated AI technology progress, shipments could reach 40,000 units.
Investment Recommendations
From an investment perspective, upstream core component suppliers may have greater advantages over the next three to five years, particularly in sensors, key modules including ball screws and reducers, and brain-side chips.
Wang Feilei recommended focusing on two categories of upstream component companies: first, enterprises with strong core business foundations where non-humanoid operations are robust; second, companies engaged in high-barrier core components within the humanoid robot supply chain, especially those capable of entering overseas supply chain systems.
Market Sentiment and Catalysts
Since the start of the year, humanoid robot sector performance reflects relatively weak market sentiment. However, if more Chinese robot enterprises proceed with IPOs, this could provide a catalyst to shift overall market sentiment.
