Market Analysis

Grayscale's latest report indicates that the recent decline in Bitcoin resembles a tech stock correction rather than a gold safe-haven mode, suggesting it remains an emerging technology asset. In the long term, regulation and infrastructure innovation may drive Bitcoin to become a store of value, but issues such as scalability need to be addressed.

Bitcoin Cash is struggling below $522, facing strong resistance and negative market sentiment amid increasing selling pressure. A short-term technical bounce may occur, but further declines towards support at $478.70 remain possible if bearish trends persist.

The number of active addresses on the Axie Infinity (AXS) network has nearly doubled in the past 24 hours. Is the sudden surge in trading activity, along with the concentration of supply in the hands of large investors, enough to sustain AXS's strong growth momentum? The explosion of address activity

Goldman Sachs warns of a potential $80 billion sell-off in US stocks, which could negatively impact BTC prices. Meanwhile, gold and silver prices have eased, prompting investor interest despite economic uncertainties.

The PUMP token is experiencing downward pressure, decreasing by about 2% and extending a prior 4% drop. With 10 billion tokens unlocking soon, retail investor interest wanes, increasing the risk of further declines amid bearish technical indicators.

Last week, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, with daily drops of over 10%, nearly falling below $60,000. Although it later rebounded to $70,000, analysts believe that a true "capitulation sell-off" has not yet occurred, as the futures basis spread remains unchanged and does not indicate extreme market pessimism, suggesting that Bitcoin may still have further downside potential.

XRP holders are facing losses as the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) dips below 1.00, indicating widespread capitulation among investors. This decline reflects a critical break in market sentiment, reminiscent of 2021-2022 trends, raising concerns about further stagnation unless recovery occurs above the cost basis.

February 10 News, as the spot gold price approaches $5,000 per ounce, the valuation gap between altcoins and gold has widened sharply. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the current "altcoin-to-gold" ratio has fallen to its lowest historical level, with the weekly RSI dropping to 25, approaching the extreme levels seen during the 2020 pandemic black swan event. This indicator is seen as a "structural low-price" signal for non-mainstream crypto assets relative to precious metals. Against the backdrop of a strong rally in gold, RWA tokens linked to physical gold have become some of the few contrarian assets. PAX Gold (PAXG) fluctuates around $5,035, with a daily trading volume exceeding $400 million; Tether Gold (XAUT) remains around $5,013, with a nearly 11% increase over the past month. However, from a global perspective, the market size of tokenized commodities is only about $800 million to $1 billion, still very limited compared to the trillions of dollars in the global spot gold market.

Despite continuous positive signals such as ETF approvals and institutional adoption, since mid-last year, funds in the crypto market have been steadily flowing out, and Bitcoin's price performance has been more similar to high-growth software stocks in the US rather than traditional safe-haven assets. Grayscale's latest research indicates that the correlation between Bitcoin and the US software sector has significantly increased, showing that its trading logic is more aligned with growth assets. Data shows that from the beginning of 2024 to now, Bitcoin and US software stocks have moved in highly synchronized patterns. During recent sell-offs, both have fluctuated almost in the same direction, indicating that this round of decline is more due to a broad de-risking of growth assets rather than issues specific to the crypto industry itself. Fund flows also confirm this: US investors led the recent sell-off, with related Bitcoin ETPs experiencing approximately $318 million in net outflows since early February, further suppressing prices.

Bitcoin ETFs have seen increased institutional demand, with notable inflows despite overall outflows. Analysts label recent downturns as the weakest bear case in Bitcoin's history, indicating resilience among early investors amid rising financialization concerns.

Kaiko Research indicates that Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains stable, with current price corrections aligning with historical patterns following a peak. The cycle consists of accumulation, halving, a surge to a new high, and subsequent corrections.

Starpath is now live on the Pi Network testnet, providing a risk-free environment for users to experiment with trading and familiarize themselves with Web3. Developers can test applications. It serves as an educational bridge to turn complex concepts into practice. But the harsh reality is: the February migration of 300 million caused the biggest impact, with prices continuously falling close to 0.14, and OTC sell-offs brewing. Technological advances cannot change the overwhelming supply flood that crushes demand.

XRP has risen for two consecutive days, with the focus shifting to the White House Market Structure Bill meeting on February 10. It is expected that a consensus on stablecoin yields will boost demand. XRP ETF inflows are strong, but Bitcoin ETF funds are flowing out. In the short term of February, the outlook remains bearish, but the medium term is bullish.

According to GreekLive analysis, the recent market has been stable, but implied volatility (IV) has significantly declined, causing the one-week volatility risk premium (VRP) to drop rapidly from +20% last week to -25%, a decrease of about 45%, setting a record. This reflects the market's quick adjustment of expectations for future volatility, but Bitcoin's volatility shows notable clustering, and institutional sentiment may be overly optimistic. The irrationality in the options market has increased, and historical experience indicates that Bitcoin's bottom has not yet been confirmed.

Pai coin has declined for the third consecutive trading day, with the downward trend aligning with the stable migration to the mainnet, potentially increasing selling pressure. On Monday, 33.06 million Pai coins were transferred to the mainnet, bringing the total transfer volume in February to approximately 300 million coins. The CEX supporting Pai coin recorded 324,152 coins outflow in the past 24 hours. Typically, withdrawals from CEX indicate easing selling pressure, but this suggests that supply pressure mainly comes from off-exchange channels, including OTC.

Solana's price approached $90 on Monday, holding onto last Friday's 11% rebound, but it has been consolidating for the third consecutive day. Derivative product data shows retail interest continues to decline, with SOL futures open interest decreasing by 2% to $5.32 billion within 24 hours, and financing rates remaining negative. The US spot Solana ETF experienced an outflow of $11.86 million, and technically, the RSI dropped to 29, indicating an oversold condition.

Goldman Sachs warns that in the coming weeks, commodity trading advisor (CTA) funds may sell off up to $80 billion worth of stocks, triggering systemic risk. Goldman Sachs' trading division stated that CTA funds have issued a sell signal for the S&P 500, potentially liquidating $33 billion within a week. Deteriorating liquidity and increased short gamma positions amplify volatility risks, posing spillover threats to macro-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and silver.

Google Trends data shows that global searches for "cryptocurrency" have plummeted to 30 (out of 100), approaching the annual low of 24. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has crashed from a historic high of over $4.2 trillion to about $2.4 trillion, evaporating $1.8 trillion. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to a historic low of 5, and current investor sentiment is the same as during the Terra-LUNA collapse in 2022.

Wintermute founder Gaevoy criticizes the crypto market for deviating from its original purpose, stating that Bitcoin has lost its way in price chasing, and that cyberpunk (institutional control) has overshadowed crypto anarchism (privacy and freedom). Stablecoins are just intermediaries replacing genuine change, and DEX risk engines limit scalability. He praises Ethereum founder Vitalik for staying true to the original vision and describes himself as a hopeful cynic.

Why did Bitcoin rise today? BTC/USD broke through $71,000 on Sunday, temporarily reversing last week's sluggish trend. The Financial Times published a bearish article claiming that Bitcoin is "destined to hit rock bottom," but this has become a contrarian indicator for bottom-fishing. The 200-week moving average cloud provides support between $58,000 and $68,000, but analysts warn of a potential repeat of the 2022 bear market.