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Market trends are showing new changes, with the bulls losing momentum and the bears beginning to surrender, but the funding rate remains quite high and negative. So, should we be bullish or bearish?
First, let's look at the weekly level. What we see is a volume-contracted rally, which proves what? That the rally is not supported by strong buying pressure; the upward movement is relatively fragile. This often happens during a trap rally, which is more prone to a pullback or decline.
Next, let's examine the daily level. What has been the state over the past three days? It has been an increase in volume, but the price hasn't shown significant growth. This situation indicates a Wyckoff effort without result—volume increases but price doesn't rise much. This usually occurs at the end or near the end of a rally, so the bulls are currently facing higher risks.
From an emotional perspective, recent market sentiment has been quite bullish. This is actually what the main players want, but retail investors are also mostly optimistic, which signals a market reversal—because only then can more long positions be trapped.
So, is 82,800 really the top? I can't judge for sure right now because the price hasn't fallen below 79,400. Once it breaks below 79,400 and doesn't recover, and if the daily closes below the parallel bottom at 79,400, then I will consider the possibility that 82,800 is the top. But for now, bulls should be especially cautious.
I have always maintained that 60,000 is not the bottom. Once a top appears, the price will still go back to 60,000 or even break below it. No matter how much this rally rebounds or how strong the rebound is, it hasn't changed my view that 60,000 is not the bottom—only time is needed to grind it out.