#Gate广场五月交易分享 Cryptocurrency Market Observation

There is a key interpretive misconception in the derivatives sector that needs to be clarified first. BTC's funding rate on Bn has been in a long-term negative zone (30-day average around -5%, historically normal value around +8%), while BTC's long-short ratio shows 47.5% longs versus 52.5% shorts, seemingly indicating a dominance of shorts. However, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, identifies this as a structural phenomenon: institutions hold spot longs through ETFs while hedging with shorts in the futures market, forming a carry trade arbitrage rather than a directional bearish view. The implication of this interpretation is: BTC Bn open interest reaching $8.34 billion with 63.3% short positions creates a significant short squeeze condition. Once the price effectively breaks above $80k driven by spot buying, cascade liquidations could amplify the rally.
However, the derivatives structure of ETH and altcoins is entirely different—ETH longs account for 67.6%, and SOL longs reach 75.1%, indicating retail speculation has formed crowded longs in these assets. If BTC experiences a pullback, the deleveraging speed of ETH and SOL will be faster than that of BTC itself.
On-chain chip distribution shows that in the past 30 days, whale wallets net bought 270k BTC, the largest monthly whale accumulation since 2013; long-term holders control 78.3% of circulating supply, with an MVRV Z-Score of only 1.2, far below the cycle top of 3.8. The chip structure indicates that the current phase is not distribution but a highly concentrated accumulation period.
The signals conveyed by the ETH/BTC exchange rate structure suggest that systemic risk appetite has not yet shifted. Although ETH has returned to around $2,380, it has not broken through the high of $2,460 on April 17, and BTC dominance remains above 60%, structurally suppressing the relative performance of ETH and altcoins. The market is in a typical "Bitcoin Season"—altcoin season index closing at 27-35, with capital not engaging in broad rotation.
SOL's Gas and DEX data show active on the surface, but SOL open interest increased 6% in 24 hours to 61.79 million tokens, only a three-week high, not yet forming a substantial capital siphon from the ETH ecosystem. ETH itself has a structural defensive line: during a 32% price retracement in Q1, ETH maintained a 56.96% share of DeFi TVL. Developers and liquidity providers are differentiating between price performance and protocol quality, combined with the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, which is the true anchor of ETH's relative narrative.