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Bitcoin breaks 80,000 again, what’s next?

After the market experienced a frenzy early in the week breaking through 82,000, the recent trend has quickly reversed. The U.S. targeted bombing of Iran was like a piercing arrow through the clouds, causing bears to gather in force. How will the market develop next? Should you chase the short or bottom fish? Let’s hear what the little fortune teller has to say:

1. Core Suppression Factors

‌Liquidity contraction and confidence fatigue‌
Currently, market depth has fallen over 30% from its peak (approaching the level of the FTX collapse in 2022), with selling pressure mainly due to lack of buying interest and weakened conviction (source credibility relatively high). Bitcoin’s reaction to traditional positives like geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar is sluggish; funds have not significantly rotated into crypto assets, and short-term momentum may continue to be weak and volatile.

‌Macroeconomic policy suppression‌
U.S. employment data exceeding expectations (such as April’s ADP adding 109k jobs) reinforces the Federal Reserve’s stance of “higher interest rates for longer” (source credibility relatively high), with rate cut expectations cooling down. If upcoming non-farm payroll data (to be released in May) shows resilience, it could further suppress risk asset valuations.

2. Potential Support Forces

‌ETF capital inflow resilience‌
Despite falling prices, spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded over $1.1 billion in net inflows in a single week (source credibility moderate). If institutional buying continues, it may slow the decline. But beware: if ETF inflow momentum weakens, resistance around $82,000, represented by the 200-day moving average, will be harder to break.

‌Key technical support levels‌
‌Strong support zone: $76,000–$78,500‌ (tested multiple times recently; holding this area could trigger a rebound).

‌Breakdown risk points‌: If falling below $76,000, the next support levels are $70,000–$72,500 (50-day moving average and lower channel boundary).

3. Future Catalysts

‌May non-farm payroll data‌ (key node)
If employment data weakens significantly, it could reignite expectations of rate cuts, which would be bullish for Bitcoin; conversely, strong data would boost rate hike expectations and increase selling pressure.

‌Market sentiment recovery signals‌
Monitor on-chain data (such as long-term holder position changes), exchange liquidity depth recovery, and whether Bitcoin can break through resistance zones at $80,000–$82,800.

4. Market Outlook—Short-term volatile and bearish, macro turning expected

‌Pessimistic scenario‌: If ETF inflows slow down combined with hawkish signals from the Fed, Bitcoin could test support at $70,000–$72,500.

‌Optimistic scenario‌: Holding above $76,000 and breaking through resistance at $82,800 could restart the rally toward $85,000.

‌Strategy suggestion‌: Focus on the $76,000 support level; remain cautious before breaking $82,800. Long-term investors can consider phased deployment but should be alert to macro policy and liquidity risks.