The Federal Reserve is increasingly resembling a "wait-and-see" party!

The market is starting to doubt: is rate cut just a PowerPoint presentation?

What is the most magical thing happening in the global financial markets right now?
Everyone is discussing rate cuts every day,
but the rate cuts haven't arrived yet.
Recently, more and more analysts are directly saying:
The Federal Reserve might enter a long-term wait-and-see mode.
In other words:
Just delay.
The reason is actually quite awkward.
The US economy isn't strong enough to keep aggressively raising interest rates,
but it's not weak enough to need an immediate rate cut.
So Powell now looks like an administrator stuck in an elevator.
Can't go up,
Can't come down.
And the market fears this state the most.
Because all asset prices,
essentially depend on "future expectations."
In the past, everyone assumed:
Eventually, there would be massive liquidity.
So tech stocks soared,
and cryptocurrencies skyrocketed.
But if high interest rates persist longer,
the entire valuation logic will be rewritten.
Especially after oil prices recently rebounded,
inflation expectations have become active again.
This directly makes the Federal Reserve even more hesitant to act rashly.
The funniest thing is,
the market now watches Federal Reserve speeches every day like chasing stars.
Just one expression from Powell can make the Nasdaq cramp.
And the real issue is:
Long-term high interest rates,
will gradually change the entire world.
Corporate financing costs rise,
consumer loan pressures increase,
and real estate becomes harder to recover.
In the end, risk assets naturally come under pressure.
So recently, the market has become more and more contradictory.
On one side, hoping the economy isn't too bad,
on the other side, hoping the economy is bad enough to force a rate cut.
What does this mindset resemble?
Like students hoping exams will be canceled,
but also not wanting the school to really collapse.
And the biggest uncertainty in the future,
may not be economic data,
but market sentiment.
Because as long as everyone starts to believe:
"High interest rates are the new era."
Asset revaluation might just be beginning. #ADP就业超预期降息再推后