Big news tonight! April Non-Farm Payrolls data will be revealed soon

Tonight, the financial markets will face a key moment—April’s official U.S. non-farm employment data will be released, and global capital is holding its breath!

Looking back at earlier data, March’s U.S. non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of 178k, far exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, April non-farm payroll forecasts have been sharply revised downward to the 50k–60k range, with employment data showing a cliff-like cooldown. At the same time, the market widely expects the April unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

What’s worth being cautious about is that even if the labor market sends clear signs of cooling, the Federal Reserve still does not have the confidence to easily start “money flooding” rate cuts. The current inflation problem has not been fundamentally resolved, and the labor market still shows a certain degree of resilience. The Fed’s monetary policy decisions only recognize the long-term trend of ongoing weakening in employment data, and it will never trade off for rate cuts based on short-term month-to-month data fluctuations. The rate-cutting cycle remains far off.

To get ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls night, map out the three major trading scenarios and accurately grasp market moves:

• If the data comes in sharply colder than expected, with new jobs below 40k: the U.S. Dollar Index will weaken accordingly, and gold, the Nasdaq index, and BTC will see a coordinated rally;

• If the data matches expectations or comes in on the stronger side: the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries will launch a strong counterattack, and assets with high valuations may face downside pressure and pullback risks;

• If employment data weakens but wage data performs strongly: the market will fall into intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with choppy, differentiated price action, and it will be hard to find a clear direction in the short term.

Non-Farm Payrolls night brings fierce market volatility and extremely high uncertainty—absolutely no heavy-position blind betting! We’ve already completed our preliminary setup. Now we just wait for the data to land and respond calmly to changes in market conditions! #比特币跌破8万美元 $BTC