#Gate广场五月交易分享 Today's Gold and Crude Oil Analysis: Major Non-Farm Payrolls Night Approaching! The Battle for Gold Range Decision is About to Begin!

Gold:                                    
The suspense before the non-farm payrolls release is at its peak! The bullish pattern for gold remains unchanged, with high-level oscillations hiding a correction opportunity.
As Middle East geopolitical conflicts gradually ease, they directly drive crude oil prices lower, and market risk aversion sentiment cools down accordingly, leading to a simultaneous dilution of some safe-haven buying in gold. Currently, global funds are highly focused on the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace, with employment data still the key indicator influencing monetary policy direction and affecting the gold and silver markets. If upcoming US employment data exceeds market expectations, the dollar may see short-term strength, exerting short-term pressure on gold prices; if employment data shows weakness, it will further confirm expectations of monetary easing, solidifying the bullish fundamentals for gold.
Looking at the daily chart, gold still firmly maintains a strong bullish pattern. After breaking through two key resistance levels at $4,600 and $4,660, the bullish momentum has been fully unleashed. Currently, the daily moving averages remain in a standard bullish alignment, and the MACD indicator stays high, indicating that medium- and long-term main funds continue to hold a bullish outlook on gold.
However, from the detailed chart, the previous gains in gold have been substantial, with many technical indicators entering overbought territory, and the market has accumulated profit-taking pressure, creating a reasonable short-term correction demand. The current short-term support level is at $4,680. As long as gold can stay above this level, the bullish trend may regain momentum to push higher, targeting the $4,750 to $4,800 range; conversely, if non-farm employment data is significantly better than expected, it will boost the dollar's rebound, and gold may experience a phase of decline, likely retesting $4,660, with a deep correction possibly reaching near $4,620.
Switching to the 4-hour chart analysis, gold is currently in a sideways consolidation at high levels. The RSI indicator is gradually cooling down, and the MACD red bars are shrinking, reflecting a decrease in short-term bullish enthusiasm. However, the overall higher-level bullish trend remains intact; this recent pullback is merely a technical correction, not a trend reversal.
Major non-farm payrolls night approaching! The battle for gold range decision is about to begin.
Tonight, the market will release the US April non-farm employment data, which is the key turning point that global funds are closely watching this week. Fluctuations in the unemployment rate will directly influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle and affect the overall market direction.
Based on previous forecasts, ADP employment data and initial jobless claims all showed negative signals, indicating a hot employment market but with weaker-than-expected unemployment-related data. The final outcome of this non-farm report will directly determine whether gold can break out of the $4,660-$4,760 range.
From a technical perspective, $4,660 is currently the short-term support and resistance dividing line for gold. When the price stays above this level, short-term long positions can be considered around the $4,695-$4,690 range; if it effectively breaks below $4,660, it signals a short-term bearish trend, and one can then consider short positions on rebounds.
The first target above is the $4,750-$4,760 resistance zone. If gold successfully breaks through, the bullish trend will further extend upward, aiming for $4,800 and possibly reaching higher at $4,850. Volatility will intensify during non-farm payrolls night, so manage your positions carefully and wait for the data to be released. (Note: Heavy positions, no stop-loss, do not follow if locking positions)
Next, let's talk about crude oil.                          
Geopolitical risks underpin the oil market, and WTI crude oil remains expected to oscillate at high levels.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical hub for global energy transportation, and potential supply disruptions in this route continue to concern capital markets. Funds' safe-haven worries about oil supply have not dissipated, providing strong support at the bottom for international oil prices. It is expected that the short-term oil market will continue to fluctuate at high levels.
From a technical analysis perspective, WTI crude oil remains in a stable medium- and long-term bullish trend on the daily chart. The price previously broke through the $95 key resistance level and tested a high of $100, indicating that geopolitical risk premiums are still a core factor influencing short-term oil prices.
Currently, the daily moving averages are diverging upward in a healthy pattern, and the MACD remains high and stable, confirming that the medium- and long-term upward trend has not reversed. If oil prices can stay firmly above $95, the upward momentum will continue, further testing the $98-$100 resistance zone; the key support below is at $91, with $88 as the last line of defense for the bulls.
Switching to the 4-hour chart, WTI crude oil has entered a short-term technical correction. The RSI indicator is retreating from overbought levels, and many short-term long positions are taking profits, causing the price to fluctuate in a high-level consolidation pattern.
The 1-hour structure remains weak, with signs of a weak rebound hiding a consolidation signal.
From a short-term perspective, crude oil continues to oscillate in a low range, and the current rebound is merely a weak correction, not a trend reversal. The price is weaving through the moving average system, with short-term bulls and bears in a tug-of-war, resulting in sideways consolidation.
Returning to the primary trend, the overall trend remains downward, with bears still dominant. Fortunately, the selling pressure has been gradually easing, and the declining momentum is weakening, with profit-taking driving a slight rebound.
Considering the overall cautious optimism in the oil market sentiment, investors hope for easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and avoid excessive market volatility, but cannot ignore the real energy transportation supply crisis. Coupled with low global oil inventories, OPEC+ sticking to production cuts, and rising transportation risks, the international oil market will likely remain highly volatile. Trading should follow the trend and focus on risk management, especially position control. (Note: Heavy positions, no stop-loss, do not follow if locking positions)