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Tonight's April Non-Farm Payrolls release!
March non-farm employment reached 178k, with April expectations only at 50,000-60k, a direct plunge, and the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3%.
Even if employment cools down, the Federal Reserve may not dare to cut interest rates: inflation hasn't stabilized, employment remains resilient, and the Fed only recognizes ongoing weakness, not single-month data.
If the data is significantly below expectations, under 40k: U.S. stocks (Nasdaq), gold, and $BTC rise, the dollar weakens;
If the data is flat or slightly strong: the dollar and U.S. bonds strengthen, high-valuation stocks pull back;
Weak employment but strong wages: the market is conflicted and volatile, with divergent trends.
Hold a light position and observe; decide after the data is released.