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Stop getting repeatedly caught by US-Iran news, come look here!

Yesterday at this time, news that the US and Iran reached an agreement directly caused oil prices to collapse, dropping 10% in a single day, while gold and Bitcoin rose together. However, in less than 12 hours, the U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces intercepted and retaliated against Iran’s attack in the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to “V-shape” rebound, and Bitcoin and gold fell back to their original levels. Are the folks chasing news being chopped up?

If you treat the success or failure of US-Iran talks like a candlestick on Polymarket, then the current stage is a sideways consolidation range, what everyone calls a stalemate phase. Are US and Iran talking? Certainly. Will they reach an agreement? Not so soon. So, conflicts won’t escalate further, nor will they end quickly. Just like Trump said, “It’s just a gentle tap, the ceasefire is still ongoing and effective.” This “conflict not escalating, small skirmishes continuing” situation is expected to persist, and US and Iran will also work together to manipulate financial markets with news, harvesting retail investors worldwide. So everyone must not chase the news; whether it’s gold or Bitcoin, focus on the consolidation range and operate in waves!

In the evening, after a day of correction, Bitcoin showed signs of a rebound. Little财神 believes that Bitcoin can still withstand pressure and return to 80,000, as the three main reasons for this round of rise remain unchanged:

1. Institutional funds continue to increase‌

US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows of $1.18 billion over three days (a single-day inflow of $532 million on May 6), with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC contributing over 90% of the increase.

Institutional holdings account for over 7%, on-chain data shows long-term holders have increased by nearly 330k BTC (about $26.7 billion) in the past month, forming strong support.

Spot trading volume Delta (CVD) surged by 199%, with buyer strength dominating market depth.

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2. Regulatory and macro environment improvement‌

The US bipartisan agreement on the “Clear Digital Asset Regulation Act” reduces policy uncertainty.

Traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are accelerating their layout of Bitcoin ETFs and custody services.

The easing of US-Iran tensions has boosted global risk appetite, shifting funds from safe-haven assets to cryptocurrencies.

‌3. Technical breakthrough signals‌

The daily chart shows a bullish flag pattern, effectively breaking through the $77,500 resistance level.

There is a CME futures gap at $84,000, which is a key target for bulls.

The weekly MACD has formed a bullish golden cross, strengthening the medium- and long-term trend.

Tonight’s 20:30 non-farm payroll data may end the current consolidation pattern of gold and Bitcoin—whether it returns to 78,500 or rises above 82,000 depends entirely on the non-farm report. It’s best not to gamble on the data; stay flat first, and after the data is released, choose your trading direction. Pay close attention to the reaction of gold and Nasdaq futures within one hour after the non-farm report—if both rise together, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through increases significantly; if the US dollar index surges rapidly, beware of short-term liquidations triggered by leveraged positions. Under the influence of institutional-led markets, chasing gains or cutting losses is extremely risky. The key support level to watch is the weekly support at $78,500.