#Gate广场五月交易分享

‍#Polymarket每日热点

Last night during the US stock market opening, NVIDIA's stock price rose another 2.85%, closing at $227.08, hitting a new all-time high. However, given the current short-term rally in US stocks and the risk of a tech stock pullback, I choose to bet that NVIDIA (NVDA) will reach $224 by May 2026. The reasons are as follows:
1. Overbought technical conditions in US stocks and NVIDIA
‌RSI approaching overbought threshold‌: The current daily RSI is at 72 (data source: CNBC quotes), and historically, when this indicator breaks above 70, it often triggers a 3%-5% technical correction.

‌Emerging divergence in trading volume‌: When the stock hit a new high on May 13, the trading volume was 134.1 million shares, below the 10-day average of 152.9 million shares (CNBC data), indicating weakening momentum to chase the rally.

‌Key resistance zone pressure‌: $227-$230 is a technical resistance zone with a large concentration of put options in the options market (Beincrypto analysis). Breaking through requires stronger buying support.

2. “Sell the News” risk from the May 20 earnings report

Expectations are already priced in‌: Market consensus for Q1 revenue is $78.75 billion (year-over-year +78.72%, according to Ainvest).

‌Need for guidance exceeding expectations to support valuation‌: The current P/E ratio (TTM) is 46.07, and if management fails to provide long-term growth guidance surpassing the current 73% growth rate (such as the monetization path of Vera Rubin chips), profit-taking may occur.

3. Macroeconomic factors do not support continued rise
Inflation heating up again suppresses growth stocks‌: US April PPI surged 6% year-over-year (Sina US stock data), and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a 10-month high, with high interest rate environment putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks.‌
Capital rotation signs‌: Some funds are shifting from tech to energy/defense stocks (Xueqiu market analysis), and Nasdaq volatility has recently increased significantly.

4. Finally, the support logic for the $224 target

‌Dense technical support zone‌

‌Key moving average support‌: The 10-day moving average (around $223) and the 20-day moving average (around $218) form a stepwise buffer zone, with $224 sitting in the short-term trend center.

‌Concentrated chip holdings‌: The April breakout of the platform high at $221-$223 (IBTimes data) has a large number of long positions, providing natural support in this area.

‌Options market hedging demand‌

Options expiring on May 31 show that the largest open interest of puts is at the $220 strike (about 400k contracts), and market makers need to hedge by buying underlying shares, forming a staged support force.