#BitcoinVShapedReversalBack 1. The Concrete Reality of the Supply Shock

To back up your point on supply discipline and inventory expectations, the IEA’s May 2026 Oil Market Report highlighted massive global inventory draws (over 240 million barrels gone in March and April alone). Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s output hitting its lowest levels since 1990 adds physical weight to the geopolitical fear premium you mentioned.
2. The Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck
You hit the nail on the head regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Normal flows of roughly 20 mb/d dropped heavily during the peak of the recent Iran-related tensions. Even though the market saw a brief psychological breather when some commercial vessels safely transited the strait recently, the cumulative losses mean the market remains structurally undersupplied.Execution Reminders for Your Challenge
Watch the RSI & Closes: On the daily charts, the fast-line RSI has been hovering near overbought territory (70+). This strongly supports your Conservative Strategy of not chasing highs above $112–$113.
The Traps: Because algorithmic momentum trading is amplifying these moves, intraday spikes above $113 are highly prone to being "liquidity grabs" rather than true structural breakouts. Waiting for a daily close above $113.50 is an excellent rule to avoid getting trapped.
Your strategy perfectly balances defensive asset allocation with clear risk triggers. Best of luck with the challenge—keep a close eye on those headlines!
Given the current tight inventory data backing the geopolitical risk, do you lean more toward an accumulation strategy on a deep pullback, or are you strictly waiting for the headline-driven breakout confirmation?