#BTC下探60000美元关键关口 BTC fell below 60k on June 25: Four layers of negative factors叠加, is the storm just beginning?
Early this morning, BTC briefly dropped below $59,100. To be honest, this is not unexpected. Many people now want to ask: Can we buy the dip?
The answer is straightforward: it's not suitable for heavy position all-in, but for BTC below 60k, consider building a spot position of 10%-15% in batches.
Major exchanges frequently listing US stock products will drain liquidity from altcoins. So don't touch small-cap altcoins randomly; assets like BTC, ETH, and BNB are more suitable for long-term observation.
I. Why did Bitcoin fall below 60k?
This is not simply panic, but a structural stacking of negative factors.
First, retail buying is absent. In the past, during major drops, retail investors would rush in to buy the dip. But in this cycle, retail is largely absent. A large number of ETF investors who entered at high prices are still in loss, with low willingness to add positions, and new buying power is almost exhausted.
Second, funds are flowing to AI. Major US cloud computing companies are expected to invest over $700 billion in AI infrastructure this year. Crypto assets and growth stocks share the same group of high-volatility investors. Once confidence declines, the entire risk asset basket will be cut.
Third, ETF funds continue to flow out. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $60k, and total ETF assets have significantly declined from highs. Without institutional buying, the market naturally loses a layer of strong support.
Fourth, institutional signals disturb sentiment. Strategy, the largest corporate buyer, sold 32 BTC earlier this month. The quantity is small, but the symbolic meaning is strong. Combined with the expiration of about $10 billion in BTC options this week, volatility is naturally amplified.
Additionally, the macro environment is not helping. The Fed is hawkish, inflation pressures persist, and BTC has not shown safe-haven properties; instead, it behaves more like a high-volatility risk asset.
II. Support and resistance levels for several coins
These levels are not predictions but the zones where bulls and bears are most likely to clash.
BTC: 59,000-60,000 is the key defense zone; further down, 58,500-59,000; in extreme cases, it could return to the 50,000 area. Resistance at 61,500-62,000; standing firmly above 63,500-66,000 is needed for structural improvement.
ETH: 1,616-1,603 is short-term defense; 1,547-1,505 is the medium-term core. Resistance at 1,645-1,660; returning above 1,680 is needed for short-term stabilization.
BNB: 550-547 is the key support zone; further down, 540-536. Resistance at 559-570; regaining 580 is needed to improve momentum.
HYPE: 60 is the immediate trend support, 58 is a strong demand zone, 55 is a psychological level and moving average convergence. Resistance at 70 and 75.
III. Why has DYDX performed strongly in recent days?
The biggest positive is the upgrade of the buyback plan. The dYdX community passed a proposal to use 75% of protocol revenue for DYDX token buybacks, previously only 25%. This directly triples the buying pressure in the market. Token unlock is slowing. 85% of tokens have been unlocked, and new emissions are reduced by 50% starting in June, lowering supply-side pressure. Trading data is also impressive. dYdX Chain's cumulative trading volume exceeds $1.5 trillion. Surge Season 3 distributes $2 million in rewards monthly, with activity still growing. The US market opens up imagination. dYdX plans to officially launch in the US this year, coupled with bridging migration, trading pair expansion, market maker fee adjustments, and foundation financing, the fundamentals are indeed improving.
IV. Ten key global financial market news recently
In mid-to-late June, risk asset pressure is not only in the crypto space.
1. The Fed kept the rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in June, with a hawkish dot plot.
2. South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted, triggering a circuit breaker, with AI and memory chip sectors under pressure.
3. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell sharply on a single day, with SanDisk, Micron, and other memory stocks plunging.
4. US spot BTC ETFs saw continuous net redemptions, with institutions reducing crypto asset positions.
5. Central banks in the UK, Canada, Australia, etc., continued to maintain high interest rates, cooling rate cut expectations.
6. Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price target, with gold ETFs experiencing continuous outflows.
7. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued "Quality and Efficiency Improvement 2.0" to stabilize long-term capital expectations for A-shares.
8. Wall Street macro investors warned of a bubble in the AI sector, with rising risk of a Q3 correction.
9. Progress in US-Iran talks eased crude supply concerns, with Brent crude falling.
10. dYdX officially announced the launch of US spot crypto trading business by year-end, with compliance progress attracting attention.
V. Trends in US stocks, A-shares, and gold
On the same day, assets diverged but risk appetite weakened overall.
US stocks: The three major indices diverged. The Dow rose 0.36%, the Nasdaq fell 0.43%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.09%. Tech stocks continued to face pressure, with concerns over AI valuation and capital expenditure still brewing. However, the plunge in crude boosted airline and tourism stocks, allowing the Dow to close in the green.
A-shares: On Wednesday, the market first fell then rose. The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.11%, the ChiNext rose 1.41%, and the STAR 50 surged 3.82%. Turnover was 3.3 trillion. The tech theme remained strong, but individual stocks saw more decliners than gainers, with severe divergence.
Gold: Spot gold broke below the $4,000 mark, closing down 2.7%. A stronger dollar, a hawkish Fed, and rising rate hike expectations formed a triple pressure, with silver falling even more.
VI. Why did SanDisk crash?
It's not that the fundamentals suddenly collapsed, but high-priced tech stocks were revalued. SanDisk (SNDK) fell 13.7% in a single day. It wasn't alone; the entire storage sector was bleeding:
Micron, Western Digital, Seagate all faced significant pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbling.
First, it had gone up too much. Even after the pullback, SanDisk's 2026 gains are still extreme, and Micron also accumulated a lot of profit-taking positions. Once the wind blows, a stampede is inevitable.
Second, the market is reassessing AI storage valuations. AI servers do boost storage demand, but the positive factors have been fully priced in. Expectations were too high, so marginal changes trigger sharp adjustments.
Third, Broadcom's earnings guidance became the trigger. High-priced tech stocks saw collective profit-taking, while put option positions and insider selling amplified the decline.
This is not a single negative factor but a repricing of risk assets overall. BTC can now be watched for batch spot buying, but don't mistake a left-side entry for a reversal confirmation; especially for altcoins, keep positions light.
