$CL Go long!

This morning, U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. and Israeli fighter jets directly attacked several Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the military has entered maximum alert. The so-called "basic agreement" that Trump claims is "virtually settled" is worthless in the face of gunfire. The geopolitical powder keg has been reignited, and I directly entered a $350,000 long position on crude oil!

1. The high-pressure blockade of the strait remains unresolved, and the agreement is essentially paper.
The U.S. military's high-pressure blockade in the strait has never loosened, and Iran faces warning shots at any moment. Under these circumstances, any peace agreement is extremely fragile. Even if the wording of the agreement is barely settled, it will take at least 30 days or more to clear mines and fully restore passage. Morgan Stanley has issued the most severe warning: if the blockade continues until June, the buffer will be completely exhausted, and oil prices could spike to $150 per barrel in the worst case.

2. Inventories have already been drained, and demand remains highly resilient.
Latest EIA data shows that as of the week ending May 15, U.S. crude oil inventories plummeted by 7.9 million barrels to 445 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decline of 2.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are also consistently below the five-year average. Goldman Sachs explicitly states that global crude oil inventories are being depleted at a record-breaking rate. Asian refineries, after a brief period of hesitation, have started to return and are actively purchasing spot cargoes at higher prices.

3. Smart money is already aggressively accumulating positions.
The latest CFTC data shows that speculators increased their net long WTI crude oil positions by 15,017 contracts last week, reaching 110,348 contracts. Funds are systematically allocating to energy longs. Citibank reaffirmed today that the oil market is severely undervaluing the risk of long-term supply disruptions. Based on baseline forecasts, Brent crude could rise to $120 in the short term, and if the Strait gradually reopens, it could surge directly to $150.

The flames at the Iran Strait are burning even hotter, inventories are still collapsing rapidly, and the most astute speculative funds have already launched a long raid. The $350,000 position is locked in tight, waiting for the agreement to fall apart completely, and wiping out this entire bearish crew!#阿贵