📊 May 29, 2026 Gold Market Morning Report

1. Market Overview
International Spot Gold: $4,495/ounce | 24h Change: +1.08% (V-shaped reversal, ending three consecutive down days)
COMEX Gold Futures: $4,499.30 (settlement price, +1.14%, +$50.90)
Domestic Gold Price (AU9999): 985 RMB/gram | Gold T+D: 961.2 RMB/gram (−2.33%)
Shanghai Gold Futures: 961.18 RMB/gram (−2.84%)
Brand Retail Pure Gold: 1,348–1,355 RMB/gram (completely below 1,360 threshold, about 22 RMB/gram lower)
Bank Investment Gold Bars: 1,000–1,015 RMB/gram
Silver: $75.6/ounce (+1.42%)
US Dollar Index: weakening
Key Statistics:
Overnight V-shaped reversal: intraday low of $4,366.23 (two-month low) → high of $4,516.63, amplitude $150.40
COMEX settlement: largest single-day increase since May 6 (in USD and percentage)
Retracement from 52-week high of $5,318.40 (January 29): 15.40%
Still up 37.44% from 52-week low of $3,273.70 (June 27, 2025)
Year-to-date increase: about 4.02%
Monthly decline narrowed to about 2.50%

2. Important Developments (Top 5)
【PCE Data Released】 Core PCE month-on-month 0.2% below expectations, triggering gold’s V-shaped reversal
April core PCE MoM rose only 0.2%, significantly below market expectations of 0.3% and previous 0.4%; PCE YoY 3.8% (in line with expectations), personal spending MoM +0.5% (in line with expectations), but personal income MoM flat (far below expected +0.4%). This "bad news in good news"—annual inflation confirms stickiness but MoM cooling indicates underlying inflation is not out of control—directly triggered a violent rebound of $150. (FX678)
【Q1 GDP Revised Down to 1.6%】Signs of stagflation strengthen, supported by fundamentals for gold
Q1 GDP growth revised from initial 2.0% to 1.6%, combined with PCE MoM cooling, forming a "slowing economy + marginal easing of inflation" combo. Market expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged until 2027 have increased, but the probability of rate hikes has fallen from over 50%. Under stagflation, the long-term allocation value of gold is being reassessed. (FXEmpire)
【US-Iran Situation Uncertain】 White House denies agreement, Al Jazeera reports deal reached for signature
Iranian state TV previously claimed US-Iran reached a memorandum of understanding (including resuming Strait shipping, US troop withdrawal), but the White House quickly denied, calling it "completely fabricated." However, Al Jazeera’s Iran bureau chief reports both sides have reached an agreement awaiting signing. Trump threatened Iran, Cuba, Oman the same day; Iranian military spokesperson publicly mocked. Geopolitical signals are chaotic, markets oscillate between "peace expectations" and "conflict escalation." (Coze/Al Jazeera)
**【Institutions Lower Expectations】UBS target $5,500 by year-end, but long-term logic remains solid**
UBS revised 2026 year-end gold price forecast down from $5,900 to $5,500; JPMorgan also lowered their annual average price forecast. But central bank gold purchases continue (China’s central bank has been increasing holdings), de-dollarization trend remains, and Asian ETF structural growth of 623% supports long-term fundamentals. Markets are rebalancing from "risk aversion-driven" to "interest rate pricing." (Mu Hang Agriculture/Sina Finance)
**【$62.5 billion BTC options expiring today】Cross-asset volatility may transmit**
About $62.5 billion worth of BTC options expire on May 29 (major crypto market event). Coupled with gold’s own V-shaped rebound momentum, cross-asset volatility could transmit. If crypto markets fluctuate sharply, some funds may flow into/out of gold, increasing short-term uncertainty in gold prices.

3. Key Data Tracking
SPDR Gold Trust Holdings: ~1,034 tons (flat, ongoing outflows in May)
Global Gold ETFs: Continued net outflows in May, mainly from the US and China
Gold-Silver Ratio: ~59.5:1
Central Bank Gold Purchases: Q1 2026 global net purchases of 244 tons, above five-year average
India Demand: Import tariffs jumped from 6% to 15%, expected annual demand to decline by about 10%
Gold Recycling Price: Domestic channels lowered to 942 RMB/gram, some below 940 RMB

4. Technical Analysis
Table
Indicator | Value | Signal
---|---|---
Daily Chart Pattern | Long lower shadow bullish candle (V-shaped reversal) | Bulls halted, bulls re-attack
20-day Moving Average | ~$4,604 | Still above, medium-term slightly weak
200-day Moving Average | ~$4,541 | Broken but tested during overnight rebound
14-day RSI | ~21.6 | Deep oversold zone
Daily MACD | Shrinking bottom volume | Exhaustion signal
Bollinger Bands | Rebound near lower band | Oversold correction
1st Support | $4,403 | Previous low area
2nd Support | $4,311 | Key support this year
1st Resistance | $4,552 | Previous support turned resistance
2nd Resistance | $4,609 | Near 20-day MA
3rd Resistance | $4,701 | Previous platform
Barchart Composite Signal | 88% Sell | Technicals still bearish

Technical judgment: The overnight V-shaped reversal left a long lower shadow, with the $4,366 area forming a short-term bottom. But the 200-day MA at $4,541 is the bull-bear dividing line—breaking above it shifts the medium-term trend to bullish; failing to do so makes rebound a shorting opportunity. The 14-day RSI at 21.6 indicates deep oversold, with strong technical rebound demand. Barchart’s 88% Sell signal suggests rebound potential may be limited; watch out for selling pressure around $4,550–$4,610.

5. Review of Last Report (May 28 Morning Report)
Table
May 28 Judgment | Result | Evaluation
---|---|---
$4,380–$4,500 weak oscillation | ⚠ Intraday low of $4,366 (slightly below lower bound), high of $4,516 (slightly above upper bound), overall range judgment mostly correct | Slight extension but core logic accurate
PCE ≥ 3.8% tests $4,380 | ✅ PCE YoY 3.8%, intraday low of $4,366, precisely testing $4,380 support | Accurate
$4,500 shifts from support to resistance | ⚠ Intraday rebound broke $4,500 to $4,516 but closed near $4,495, not stabilized | Resistance effective but briefly broken, needs ongoing observation
Medium-term structural bullish logic unchanged | ✅ Central bank gold buying, de-dollarization, etc., unchanged; Q1 purchase of 244 tons confirmed | Accurate
Key variable ranking: PCE > US-Iran talks > Volcker Fed > SPDR holdings | ✅ PCE was the main catalyst overnight, US-Iran second | Correct ranking
Reflections: The report’s range judgment on 5/28 was generally accurate, and the PCE catalyst logic was fully validated. The underestimation was the rebound strength from the 0.2% MoM PCE (below 0.3% expectation)—in a deeply oversold and overly bearish context, data below expectations can trigger a violent rebound far exceeding the range. Future adjustments should incorporate the "depth of oversold" into the framework; the deeper the oversold, the greater the rebound potential driven by data.

6. Core Judgment for Today
V-shaped reversal establishes a short-term bottom, the 200-day MA is the mid-term bull-bear dividing line
Short-term (1-3 days): $4,450–$4,550 range with strong oscillation, rebound momentum continues. The 200-day MA at $4,541 is a key threshold—if it’s effectively broken (close above for 2+ days), then $4,600–$4,700 rebound space opens; if resisted and falls back, the $4,366 low may be tested again. Today’s focus: the $62.5 billion BTC options expiry causing cross-asset volatility, and whether US-Iran developments make substantial progress (signing agreement or escalation).
Medium-term (1-3 months): A V-shaped rebound does not equal trend reversal. The market remains in a "rate pricing" phase. Although Fed rate hike expectations have fallen from over 50%, they have not disappeared. The Q1 GDP at 1.6% + PCE cooling suggests stagflation risk, which is positive for gold (stagflation = weak economy + sticky inflation = limited real interest rates), but only if the Fed does not pursue "Volcker-style" aggressive hikes. Maintain a medium-term bullish view, but the rebound ceiling is around $4,700–$4,800 (dense zone of 20/50-day moving averages). A true trend reversal requires the Fed to explicitly abandon rate hikes.
Key variable ranking: 1) US-Iran progress (whether peace agreement is signed) > 2) 200-day MA contest outcome > 3) Fed June meeting guidance > 4) SPDR holdings stabilization or inflow #股票交易挑战最高赢17000U

7. Risk Alerts
🔴 US-Iran signs peace agreement → oil prices plummet → inflation expectations sharply decline → real interest rates soar → gold sharply drops
🔴 Fed signals rate hikes in June, further punishing gold’s non-yielding attribute
🔴 Resistance at the 200-day MA of $4,541 causes a fall, V-shaped rebound turns into a "dead cat bounce," with a second bottom at $4,366 or even $4,314
🟡 Trump’s military actions against Cuba/Oman, market chaos under dual conflicts
🟡 BTC options expiry triggers cross-asset volatility, short-term pressure on gold prices
🟢 Reversal opportunity: if US-Iran peace talks fail and conflicts escalate, risk-averse funds may flow back into gold, pushing prices above $4,600