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Do you really understand SpaceX? Do you really understand Musk? Do you really understand Tesla?
If you truly understand, then you’ll know how to invest. In recent years, a lot of people have become crazed fans of Musk—blindly praising and following him. I admit that Musk is indeed very capable and quite charismatic, but early holders of Tesla stock all know that Musk’s influence on the stock through the media isn’t really that reliable. Tesla has crashed countless times because of him. I urge everyone to learn more before making any investment.
Key time points are clearly visible: options will officially open next Tuesday.
The extremely low circulating shares are likely to trigger gamma squeezing, leading to short-term trading and further amplified volatility; on July 6th, after 15 trading days since listing, the company is expected to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index, forcing various passive funds to buy in, which will trigger a wave of passive buying; after the Q2 earnings report on August, early investors and employees can unlock 20% of their shares, with additional releases of 7% in batches; after the Q3 earnings report in November, another 28% will be unlocked; by mid-December, after 180 days since listing (excluding Musk himself who is locked for a year), almost all other shares will be unlocked.
Among these, the August unlocking window is the riskiest point. Early investors have already gained returns of dozens or even hundreds of times, and their strong desire to cash out after unlocking will inevitably cause significant selling pressure.
From my trading perspective, I plan to start shorting in stages before SpaceX is included in the index on July 6th, by buying put options with strike prices near 200-250, controlling total position size at 5%, holding until the end of the year, and gradually building positions.
Currently, SpaceX is operating at a loss but has a market value in the trillions, entirely supported by market sentiment and faith, with obvious bubble characteristics.
Referring to historical patterns, the median maximum drawdown in the first year of super IPOs can reach as high as 53%. Meta dropped 31% after listing, Uber and Robinhood even plummeted 80%. The more story-driven the stock, the more extreme the short-term sentiment tends to be.
Investors who get allocated new shares can consider exiting after the stock peaks, and avoid blindly chasing highs in the secondary market at the emotional peak. #SpaceX