II. Core Drivers of This Round’s Decline (Macro + Capital Logic)

1. Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Greatly Delayed
U.S. inflation persistence exceeds expectations, prompting the market to reprice “high rates for longer, or even a rate hike restart by year-end,” pushing up real yields on Treasuries and suppressing all high-risk assets. BTC/ETH are highly correlated with U.S. tech stocks and NVIDIA, all undergoing synchronized valuation compression.

2. Institutional Capital Exit + Sustained Net Outflows from Spot ETFs
Institutional incremental capital faded in H1, with early-cycle bull profit-takers concentratedly cashing out. Longs reducing positions created a negative feedback loop driving prices down.

3. Short-Term Event Shock: $10 Billion Options Expiration Pressure
On Friday, June 26, Deribit saw $10 billion worth of BTC options expire. A large number of call options ended up out-of-the-money, and market makers’ hedging intensified short-term selling pressure, prone to sharp wick volatility.

4. Ethereum’s Own Fundamentals Are Weak
Foundation layoffs, development progress falling short, the Glamsterdam upgrade catalyst not yet realized, capital flowing out of the public chain sector — ETH lacks an independent upward logic.