GoldShort-TermTrading

II. Today's Core Driving Logic

1. The core bearish factors suppressing gold prices remain
The hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve have not completely dissipated. The market still prices in the possibility of a rate hike within the year. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains at a high level above 4.4%, and the US dollar index stands firm in the strong range of 101.4. As a non-yielding asset, gold's holding cost is relatively high, and its rebound momentum continues to be suppressed.
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2. Short-term support comes from fully priced-in bearish factors
The two rounds of inflation data (CP

- Key market developments yesterday: The PCE inflation data was released on Thursday evening. The overall PCE year-over-year was 4.1%, and core PCE was 3.4%, in line with market expectations and not exceeding expectations. After the bearish news was priced in, short sellers took profits. Gold prices rebounded in a V-shape from the intraday low of $3963, reclaiming the $4000 level. The daily chart closed with a long lower shadow, forming a stop-falling candle.
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- Structural assessment: The medium-term major bearish trend has not reversed. The current move is just a technical rebound from overs

I. Intraday Market Status (as of 15:00)
London Gold Spot (XAUUSD): Current price range of 4000~4030 USD/oz oscillating
- Intraday trend: Asian session continues the recovery after yesterday's bottom-fishing rebound. In early trading, it surged to 4035 but faced resistance and pulled back, then again tested the 4000 integer level. Overall, it is a weak oscillation at low levels after a sharp decline.

VI. Key Risk Reminders
1. The cryptocurrency market operates 24/7 without price limits; sudden price spikes and liquidations are common. Avoid heavy positions, full margin, and frequent contract trading.
2. This is currently a consolidation within a downtrend. The probability of successfully bottom-fishing is very low. Do not blindly guess the bottom.
3. Regulatory, geopolitical, and large sell-off events can trigger sudden crashes at any time. Risk control should always be the top priority.
If needed, I can provide you with:
1. Fine trading ranges based on short-term ATR stop-loss and support

V. Key stabilization signals to watch in the future
Only when the following signals appear does it mean that short-side momentum is exhausted and the market is suitable for bottom-fishing observation:
1. BTC breaks and holds above $62,000 with volume, daily candle closes as a large bullish candle, and trading volume significantly increases
2. U.S. tech stocks and U.S. Treasury yields stabilize, macro risk sentiment cools down
3. Ethereum stops making new lows, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate stops falling and rebounds
4. On-chain ETF fund outflows end their continuous streak, and net inflows rea

III. Trend Judgment by Timeframe
1. Short-term (1–7 days, this week)
Overall biased bearish oscillation, prone to declines rather than gains.
- Likely to weakly grind bottom in the range of 58500–61500 (BTC) and 1500–1650 (ETH)
- Two scenarios:
① Holding the 59000 support → oversold low-volume rebound, a technical repair with limited upside, difficult to break 62000
② Effectively breaking below 58500 → opening downside space, looking at the 55000–57000 range for a second bottom
- ETH follows BTC's lead, difficult to form an independent trend. Only after BTC stabilizes will ETH undergo passive

II. Core Drivers of This Round’s Decline (Macro + Capital Logic)
1. Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Greatly Delayed
U.S. inflation persistence exceeds expectations, prompting the market to reprice “high rates for longer, or even a rate hike restart by year-end,” pushing up real yields on Treasuries and suppressing all high-risk assets. BTC/ETH are highly correlated with U.S. tech stocks and NVIDIA, all undergoing synchronized valuation compression.
2. Institutional Capital Exit + Sustained Net Outflows from Spot ETFs
Institutional incremental capital faded in H1, with early-cycle bull profit-takers

The Second Cake ETH
Current price range: $1550~$1600, significantly weaker than BTC, acting as a leading decliner
- Market characteristics: High beta attribute, when BTC drops it drops faster, when BTC rebounds its rebound is weaker, existing funds prioritize BTC for safe haven, Ethereum liquidity is diverted
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- Key levels
✅ Short-term support: $1520~$1500 (psychological + previous dense trading support)
✅ Ultimate support: $1420~$1400, once effectively broken below, mid-term bearish confirmed
❌ First resistance: $1630~$1650
❌ Strong resistance: $1700, only reclaiming this level will repair t

1. Current Market Status (Short-term Trend)

BTC (Bitcoin)

Current price range: $59,000~$60,200. In June, there was an overall sharp pullback, with a monthly decline of over 25%. From the previous high of $80k+, it entered a medium-term oscillating downtrend channel.

- Technical structure: The daily chart has broken below all short-term moving averages, forming a bearish continuation pattern. The rebound continues with shrinking volume, indicating a weak pattern of "downside on heavy volume, rebound on light volume"
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- Key Levels (Bull-Bear Watershed)
✅ Short-term support: $59,000~$59,10

Big Cake (BTC Bitcoin) + Second Cake (ETH Ethereum) Comprehensive Trend Panorama Analysis (as of 2026.6.26)
Important Risk Warning: Cryptocurrencies are extremely high-risk speculative assets with sharp volatility and no regulatory oversight. The following is only a technical-market review plus macro-logic recap and does not constitute any investment advice, advice to open a position, or advice to buy the dip. The risk of liquidation due to contract leverage is extremely high—please be sure to strictly control your position size.

2. Medium-term Trend (3–6 months: Major bear market adjustment, bottoming and grinding)
Falling from the historical high of 120k+ last year, this is a moderate deep correction after the bull market
- Q3 (July–September): Likely to oscillate widely in the 53,000–68,000 range for bottoming and grinding
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- Trend turning point conditions: Must see two major signals
① U.S. inflation data significantly cools down, expectations of interest rate hikes completely fade
② BTC ETF fund flows turn from net outflows to net inflows, institutional funds return

II. BTC (Bitcoin) Trend Structure
1. Short-term Trend (1–2 Weeks: Bearish Dominance, Weak Bottom-Finding)
- Daily: Broke below the 60,000 round number, price fully under pressure below the 5/20/50-day moving averages, descending channel opened
- 4H: Rebound highs gradually lower, forming a continuation pattern; oversold area has only minor technical bounces, no reversal signals
- Key Levels (Spot Reference)
Upper Resistance (Layered Resistance on Bounces)
First Resistance: 61,500–62,200 (intraday strong resistance on pullbacks)
Mid-term Watershed: 64,500–65,000, only reclaiming stability above

1. Macro Background (Determines Medium-term Trends)
1. Hawkish Fed Expectations Strike Again (Core Negative)
The June FOMC meeting’s dot plot significantly raised the terminal rate, with market pricing putting the probability of another rate hike in 2026 at 77%, pushing rate-cut expectations directly to 2027.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar strengthen, as the high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress risk asset valuations. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as high-leverage growth assets, face far greater pressure than gold.
2. Institutional Capital Continues to Flow Out,

BTC Big饼 + ETH Second饼 Complete Trend Analysis (as of intraday June 25, 2026)

⚠️ Only market logic review, does not constitute any contract/spot buy/sell, add/reduce position investment advice
Current market: BTC near $59,800, ETH near $1,590, both falling sharply throughout the day, returning to the weak downward channel

- Short-term (1 month): The bearish trend remains unchanged; oversold conditions will only lead to a slight rebound, with rebounds still mainly under pressure and declining. Be cautious and avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
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- Medium-term (second half of the year): Q3 will grind and build a bottom; Q4 has a window for stabilization and rebound. Key point: wait for the inflection point in interest rate expectations.
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- Long-term allocation: After the correction, it enters a phased purchasing range for medium to long term, suitable for asset allocation funds, not suitable for short-term speculatio

#0成本拿2股SK海力士 Hawkish Expectations Reversal of the Federal Reserve (Biggest Negative)
The June FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot raised the rate path, and the market re-priced the probability of another rate hike in September and December this year, significantly increasing; the new Fed chair is hawkish, and the resilience of U.S. CPI and non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, directly postponing rate cut expectations from July-September to 2027.
Real U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index strengthened simultaneously. The holding cost of gold as a non-y

Gold trading signals are just a joke