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Hard to see a world where US AI hyperscaler capex drops dramatically from $GOOGL to $META.
When China entities like 360 go and claim:
They now have a "AI cyber nuclear weapon" that can hack Western companies and governments.
(Zhou claimed Mythos was like an AI era cyber nuclear weapon, then claimed they built a Chinese equivalent).
We're probably witnessing the modern cold war.
But instead of nuclear stockpiles, it's racing to build superintelligence both offensively and defensively.
With many different "battles" happening concurrently like supply chain export controls between China -> Japan -> US hyperscalers.
The funny thing is that everyone still depends on one another:
- US with things like rare earths and feedstock from China.
- China with EUV to EDA and engineered substrates.
So there's still give or takes trades to build up capabilities like Nvidia/AMD AI chips access for rare-earth/magnets access.
Which is exactly why it's important for the US to build up rare earths supply chains ASAP.
And not piss off allied supply chain chokepoints like European EUV partners with $ASML to Japanese vacuum/furnace makers like Ulvac with things like tariffs, if the US wants to use it as leverage for negotiations.
But we're getting dangerously closer to a point where supply chain interdependence is not a deterrent against escalation.
Especially as China grows closer to becoming self-reliant. And that might be the tipping point.