ForumMiningMaster

Hard to see a world where US AI hyperscaler capex drops dramatically from $GOOGL to $META.
When China entities like 360 go and claim:
They now have a "AI cyber nuclear weapon" that can hack Western companies and governments.
(Zhou claimed Mythos was like an AI era cyber nuclear weapon, then claimed they built a Chinese equivalent).
We're probably witnessing the modern cold war.
But instead of nuclear stockpiles, it's racing to build superintelligence both offensively and defensively.
With many different "battles" happening concurrently like supply chain export controls between China -> Japan -

Japan's Rakuten to establish joint venture with $ASTS to build out LEO satellite networks for Japan per Digitimes/Nikkei.
"The move is widely viewed as a strategic response to the growing influence of $SPCX Starlink in Japan"

Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets:
- "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years"
$LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now.
- NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source.
This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp.
- Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to

Guess we finally found why $META signed massive agreements with Neoclouds like $NBIS back in March...
And why Gemini got super nerfed.
$GOOGL reportedly restricted Meta's capacity in March 2026 because of compute restraints.
Google's CEO said from last earnings computing power restrictions prevented Google Cloud from taking on more customer needs and made the department's backlog nearly double the previous quarter.
This is probably positive for the AI DC capex buildout since hyperscalers capacity is way below what is needed, and especially so if they can't rely on one another.

WSJ: “China Has Matched Anthropic in Cybersecurity, Resetting AI Race”
China’s Zhipu AI, has matched
Anthropic’s Mythos in certain benchmarks, such as exploiting cybersecurity bugs.
Well, that’s not good.
Instead of blaming the administration which did the correct thing…
Anthropic’s clearly at fault for not setting enough guardrails to prevent distillation.
Even before Fable release there were a lot of rumors that China had backdoors to distill it.
Part of it is the trillions of capex to accelerate the AI moat.
And the second part is not handing that work over on a silver platter for milli

Robotics is next.
Both deal count and investment amounts are skyrocketing per pitchbook March data (source: a16z)
Good thing is: the same AI DC exposure often has cross-exposure to humanoid ramp.
Like DRAM/NAND with memory (on humanoid inference/storage) or DFB lasers with photonics (FMCW LiDAR vision/sensing).
Right now most exposure is upstream component parts… or programs within large players like $AMZN or $TSLA.
So global IPO season H2 into 2027 for pure play humanoids/robotics companies is going to be fun.

$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup.
Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable).
It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies.
$SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET?
Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so.
Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell.
For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like Spac

Brooo, OpenAI is back and they're releasing their new model GPT-5.6 Sol.
With their benchmarks, OpenAI claims:
- Sol Ultra beats Mythos 5 and mogs it for coding/workflow.
- And is better for bio/cybersecurity too.
Pretty bullish on OpenAI again if they leapfrogged Anthropic.

Morgan Stanley: Retained its forecast for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates through year-end (no rate hikes).
Michael Gapen said incoming data since the June FOMC meeting has made it "marginally more comfortable" in its no-hike baseline.

Morgan Stanley: Retained its forecast for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates through year-end (no rate hikes).
Michael Gapen said incoming data since the June FOMC meeting has made it "marginally more comfortable" in its no-hike baseline.