July 10 SK Hynix ADR listed on Nasdaq: Three trend scenarios and what to do if trapped in Micron/SanDisk

First, the conclusion: I believe that on July 10, the day of the SK Hynix ADR listing, the most likely trend is 'rise first → correction → rise again', with a probability of about 65%. The remaining 35% is split between 'direct surge' and 'direct drop'. Let me explain why.

Core logic: valuation gap + capital siphoning

SK Hynix currently has a forward P/E ratio of 6.2x, Micron 7x (once above 11x before June 22), SanDisk 10.1x. Price-to-sales ratio: SK Hynix 3.6x, Micron 4.6x. Among the three storage giants, SK Hynix is the cheapest.

Jupiter Asset Management estimated that if SK Hynix's PE aligns with Micron, the stock has 30% upside. This is the core reason capital wants to buy SK Hynix—not because it tells a good story, but because it is clearly cheap.

Why is it 'rise first → correction → rise again'?

On the listing day, low PE + HBM narrative + Nasdaq 100 inclusion expectations push sentiment up. But recently the storage sector as a whole is falling—on July 7, Micron -7% to
917
, SanDisk
-
7
917, SanDisk - 764 billion investment plan), capital will flow back to buy the dip, completing the second leg up.

The probability of a direct surge is low because the broad market environment is too poor—Nasdaq -1.16%, fear sentiment pervasive, sentiment cannot support a continuous rise. The probability of a direct drop is also low because the 6.2x PE valuation floor is there, too cheap, someone will buy the dip.

The siphoning effect is the biggest risk for those trapped.

There are only three players in the storage sector: SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk. Capital is not infinite. If the siphoning effect takes hold after SK Hynix's listing—capital from Micron and SanDisk is sucked away to buy SK Hynix—then SK Hynix rises alone, while the other two continue to fall.

The signs that this script is unfolding are already clear: Micron fell from 11x PE before June 22 to the current 7x, SanDisk fell simultaneously, and even before the SK Hynix ADR listing, institutions were already shouting '30% upside'. Money is flowing to the valuation gap.

My judgment and operation ideas

Disclaimer: The following is my personal thinking, not a recommendation for anyone to buy or sell.

For those trapped in Micron and SanDisk, my view is: reduce positions on rallies, don't wait for breakeven. The logic is simple—if the siphoning effect takes hold after SK Hynix's listing, Micron and SanDisk valuations will be further suppressed. SK Hynix PE 6.2x, Micron 7x, the gap will attract capital to continuously flow from high valuation to low valuation until the gap narrows. Before the gap narrows, Micron and SanDisk are unlikely to have independent trends.

What to do with the money from reducing positions? Wait for the pullback after SK Hynix's listing to enter. Don't chase the first-day surge, wait for the 'rise first → correction' correction, and build positions in batches near support levels. Specific levels depend on the market after listing, but the idea is 'don't chase the first-day sentiment peak, wait for the second entry after sentiment cools'.

If SK Hynix can drive a broad rally in the entire storage sector—for example, HBM demand exceeding expectations, AI server orders exploding—that would be the best case, with all three rising together. But from the current capital and sentiment perspective, the probability of siphoning is greater than a broad rally.

Signals to track

SK Hynix ADR first-day trading volume: the larger the volume, the stronger the siphoning effect
Micron and SanDisk's trend in the 3 days after listing: if they fall simultaneously, siphoning is confirmed
Whether SK Hynix is included in Nasdaq 100: inclusion will bring passive fund forced buying
Samsung Q2 earnings aftereffects: if the storage sector fundamentals continue to deteriorate, the probability of a broad rally further decreases
Friends who are following the storage sector, what do you think of the impact of SK Hynix listing on Micron and SanDisk?

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