The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on June 16-17 at 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 9 (2:00 PM Eastern Time on July 8). These minutes are drawing significant attention not only because they record the full internal deliberations of the first policy meeting presided over by the newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh, but also because they occur at the intersection of several key turning points. The June meeting itself had already sent strong hawkish signals. The FOMC voted 12-0 to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, its fourth consecutive hold. But what truly sparked the market was the dot plot—of the 18 officials who submitted rate forecasts, 9 expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. This figure was still zero as recently as March.

The format of the meeting statement itself also sent a signal. The statement was sharply trimmed to about 130 words, removing the previously noted “easing bias” that suggested possible rate cuts, and it no longer mentioned the outlook for economic and monetary policy. This minimalist style reflects Warsh’s policy reform approach—less guidance, more reliance on data.

The importance of the minutes also lies in the time lag. When the June meeting took place, labor market data had not yet reflected the weakness that would come later. The June nonfarm payrolls report released on July 2 showed only 57,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations of 110,000 to 115,000. The minutes record the assessments made at the time of the meeting, while the market...