ShiFangXiCai7268

4/18 – 4/19 Gate Square Weekend Session: #周末交易计划
☕ Weekend slow life, is it turning off the K-line to go on a picnic, or watching the screen for rebounds? At Gate Square, trading is never lonely. Even “holding cash and sleeping among flowers” is a top-tier strategy.
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💬 Chat topics:
1️⃣ This weekend, do you bet on the market “full recovery” or “continued cooling”?
2️⃣ Who in your watchlist is quietly gathering strength?
3️⃣ What signals that could break the calm are worth everyone’s attention?
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📅 Event time: 4/18 10:00 – 4/20 18:00 (UTC+8)

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#山寨币强势反弹
Those who frequently read the Little Wealth God Morning Report know that I have been mentioning that the altcoin season has arrived. Today, the market finally reached its peak, with ORDI, SIREN, and RAVE—the "Big Three"—rising over 100%, joining forces with SATS, NEIRO, and others on the "hot list" of surging tokens. One after another, they take the stage, creating quite a lively scene. But as the saying goes, buy when no one is paying attention, sell when everyone is shouting. Now, market sentiment has already shifted to FOMO, indicating that this wave of altcoin rally may be entering the mid-to-late stage. It’s time to reduce positions and manage risks.
Looking back at this week’s trades, I participated in RAVE at the start of the week, then MYX, BIO, and yesterday’s ORDI. Under the crazy market, it’s common to see positions multiply three or four times. But overall, my total gains aren’t very high. Reflecting on the reasons, I think it’s because I was trading too frequently. After making profits, I kept trying to expand them, leading to too many short-term trades. Everyone must take this as a warning!
This round of altcoins doesn’t have a clear hype sector; most are old coins that have been sideways at the bottom for a long time and lack popularity. Basically, the main players are finding some coins that have been thoroughly shaken out and are "half-dead," then secretly accumulating chips at the bottom. They use their capital advantage to forcibly pump the market, harvesting both spot and futures. Next, it’s likely to enter a rotation phase, with some tokens that have experienced significant drops earlier and haven’t been hotly traded this round worth paying attention to. For example, the long-neglected GamFi and some excellent tokens within the MEME sector. Also, if the currently "most dazzling" RAVE experiences a sharp correction, it might be a good opportunity to buy the dip. It seems 🐶’s whales aren’t planning to exit so quickly.
What’s the outlook for the next market?
Looking back at past cycles, altcoin seasons usually occur in two scenarios: either in the early stage of a bull market or at the end of a long sideways trend just before a decline. Today’s market looks more like the latter. On one hand, Bitcoin is approaching the weekly resistance zone of 76,000–77,500. On the other hand, the market is still in a bear phase, so we shouldn’t be overly optimistic. In the short term, RAVE might still have some room to rise, but I’m not very optimistic about SIREN’s future; it’s better to short on rallies. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, there hasn’t been much movement recently. If you want to trade, probably better to focus on short positions.
Bitcoin key support: 73,000
Key resistance: 76,000
Ethereum key support: 2,280
Key resistance: 2,380
What do you all think about the upcoming market? Let’s leave comments and chat. Wishing everyone daily prosperity!

#山寨币强势反弹 RAVE surges, will the counterfeit season of 2026 return?
In the past few days, if you are still watching the market, you are likely to be shaken by a token called RAVE. In just the past week, this token claiming to be a Web3 music protocol has skyrocketed from 0.25 to over 18 at its peak. The increase over a month exceeds a terrifying 6,000%. Its market cap has expanded to 3.1 billion USD in just a few days. Watching RAVE’s unreasonable pump, many players holding other altcoins are turning red with envy. Everyone is asking the same question in groups.
Does RAVE’s surge mean that the long-dormant altcoin season is finally about to explode? Don’t rush to FOMO—let’s set aside emotions and see what the smartest money and top analysts in the market are saying.
01 The whale’s strategy
If you carefully examine RAVE’s 6,000% rally, you will find it’s not due to any groundbreaking technological breakthrough, but a brutal game of chips. On-chain data shows that RAVE’s surge was accompanied by over 43 million USD in short positions liquidated. On-chain analyst Lookonchain pointed out that this was essentially an extreme short squeeze. The whales used their advantage of extremely low circulating supply and high control to force short sellers into a corner, pushing the price up on the corpses of shorts. Many say that now 18 dollars is the top and shorts are at their limit. But if you are a whale, would you not pop the bubble of these shorts and then go further down? This indicates that the current market is still a game of existing holdings.
Top crypto capital traders generally believe that there is not enough new outside money flooding into the altcoin market like in 2021. Funds are only able to focus their firepower on a few well-controlled targets like RAVE, “playing guerrilla warfare.”
02 Three hard indicators for the start of altcoin season
If RAVE is just an isolated case, then how long until the real “full altcoin season” arrives? Only when these three indicators resonate simultaneously will the altcoin season truly arrive:
1. Bitcoin dominance peaks and then declines
This is the most critical signal.
Currently, BTC’s market share remains high.
Historical experience shows that only after Bitcoin completes its “vampire” phase and its price consolidates at a high level, and when BTC dominance breaks key support levels—50% or even lower—will funds truly spill over into altcoins. Right now, Bitcoin’s dominance is still above 57%.
2. A strong reversal in ETH/BTC exchange rate
Ethereum (ETH) is the overall leader among all altcoins.
If ETH against BTC continues to decline, it will be difficult for altcoins to have systematic opportunities.
Whales are waiting for the ETH/BTC rate to form a clear bottom structure on the weekly chart.
As long as the big brother doesn’t hold firm, the smaller players won’t dare to act rashly.
3. Continuous expansion of stablecoin total market value
Without bullets, what can you use to pump the market?
Only when the total market cap of USDT, USDC shows continuous net growth for several months does it mean genuine dollar funds are flowing steadily into the crypto casino.
Currently, much of the incremental funds have been absorbed by Bitcoin ETFs and have not flowed into the altcoin market.
03 Embracing a structural bull market
So, returning to our question: will the altcoin season come again in 2026?
The conclusion is that the old “buy anything blindly and it will rise tenfold” classical altcoin season probably will never return.
As the Web3 market matures and institutionalizes, the future market will always be a “structural bull market.”
The track is highly segmented, and funds will pounce like cheetahs only on projects with real revenue (like top DeFi), strong narratives (like AI+Crypto, DePIN), or highly controlled targets after extreme washouts.
The trap of liquidity exhaustion means that 90% of old, outdated altcoins, even at the peak of a bull market, will never return to their previous highs.
They have been abandoned by whales and the times, turning into neglected “zombie coins.” So, don’t expect RAVE’s surge to justify heavy holdings in your dead coins, hoping they will suddenly bloom.
At this stage, you either hold tight to BTC and ETH. Or you must, like a professional VC, deeply research those niche sector leaders with solid data and clean chip structures.
Don’t wait for the wind; the current breeze only blows for those who are prepared.

#山寨币强势反弹 Is it a genuine bottom or a false recovery? Multiple tokens' trends "support the pillar of the sky"
Consecutive days of gains have suddenly made the long-dormant altcoin market lively again. Some tokens have experienced continuous surges, even showing violent rallies of several times or dozens of times in a short period, giving the impression of a restart of the altcoin season. However, this is not a sign of a comprehensive revival of altcoins, but rather a localized celebration led by a few strong tokens.
The era of broad price increases is over, and strong coins are taking over the altcoin rally
Altcoins have not shown the long-anticipated broad rally script.
According to CoinGecko's tracked top 1000 tokens by market cap, over the past 7 days, the top 30 tokens by gain have averaged a 153.5% increase, significantly outperforming mainstream assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, mainly concentrated in sectors such as Meme, inscriptions, AI, and infrastructure.
But further analysis reveals that this round of altcoin rally is not evenly distributed but dominated by a very small number of assets with extreme performance.
The top 10 tokens by percentage increase all exceeded 100%, with RAVE, bnLife, and ORDI leading the pack, with gains of 1596.2%, 307.2%, and 265.4%, respectively; the other 20 tokens performed more modestly, mainly in the 40%-100% range, averaging about 65.6%. In other words, a few "top students" have pulled up the overall performance.
Trading volume data also confirms this. Although overall trading volume has rebounded, funds have not flowed evenly but concentrated in a few assets. In the past 24 hours, these tokens averaged about $140 million in trading volume, with only ORDI, BIO, and BASED accounting for nearly 70% of the total turnover, showing a strong concentration of capital.
Further breakdown shows that the assets in this rally roughly fall into two categories.
One category is projects that have just hit new highs and are in a strong trend. There are 12 projects that have set new highs within the past month, most of which have refreshed their historical price records in recent days. These tokens have good liquidity and high market attention but have accumulated a large amount of profit-taking, with current prices averaging about 29.5% below their previous highs. If new funds weaken or sentiment shifts, sharp corrections are likely to occur.
The other category is assets that are deeply oversold and are rebounding. There are 13 tokens that are more than a year away from their historical highs, with some exceeding four years, and an average maximum decline of 95.4%. Since the circulating market cap of these projects has shrunk significantly, only a small amount of capital is needed to quickly push them higher, with an average rebound of 104.4% in recent surges.
From a market cap perspective, most tokens currently have a market value between $20 million and $80 million. These mid- to low-cap projects, due to their smaller circulating supply, have significantly higher price elasticity under the same capital inflow compared to high-cap projects, making rapid price surges easier. Among the eight projects with a market cap over $75k, the average increase is about 340%, indicating that these projects had relatively low initial market caps, enabling such strong gains. However, as market caps are rapidly inflated, it will become much more difficult to achieve similar percentage increases in the future.
Limited rebound space, the altcoin era of differentiation begins
Although there are signs of recovery in prices and trading volume for some altcoins, overall market liquidity remains insufficient, and Bitcoin continues to dominate, so the rebound potential may be limited.
CoinGlass's altcoin season index shows that the current market altcoin season index is 36, indicating that the overall market has not yet formed a full altcoin season, with most tokens underperforming Bitcoin, and funds more concentrated in a few strong coins.
Meanwhile, as a sentiment indicator for the crypto market, CoinGlass's fear and greed index shows a current reading of 22, in the fear zone. This low level reflects cautious market sentiment, with the overall state being oversold or pessimistic. The fear zone has appeared about 30.68% of the time historically, a common feature during bear phases in the crypto market, also indicating that the current rebound is not yet based on emotional resonance.
More importantly, the current altcoin rally still occurs during Bitcoin's dominance phase. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin's market share in the crypto market has reached 56.8%, with Ethereum at 10.7%. Until Bitcoin's absolute market share declines significantly, most altcoins remain assets for capital rotation rather than trend leaders.
The recent rise of these altcoins may be driven by these main factors:
First, easing geopolitical risks. The easing of geopolitical tensions also provides macro support for this altcoin rebound. Recent signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran have significantly reduced market risk premiums, boosting the collective recovery of global risk assets. As a high-beta asset, the crypto market is highly sensitive to geopolitical sentiment changes. After risk aversion eases, investor risk appetite increases, and some profit-taking funds rotate from mainstream assets like Bitcoin into more elastic altcoins, amplifying the rise of certain strong performers.
Second, capital rotation for profit-taking. Bitcoin has recently continued to strengthen and approached $75k, with early investors realizing substantial gains. As Bitcoin enters a high-level consolidation phase with slowing upward momentum, some profit-taking funds begin to flow out, seeking higher returns in smaller market cap altcoins with greater growth potential.
Particularly, many established altcoins are in severely oversold zones, and once liquidity is replenished, rapid rebounds can be triggered. Coupled with the leverage effect of derivatives markets, prices could be driven even higher. However, it should be noted that such rebounds mainly depend on sentiment recovery or external catalysts rather than fundamental improvements.
Third, market makers' high control. The violent surges of a few tokens benefit from project teams or whales controlling the chips. These assets have extremely low liquidity and are easily manipulated, essentially resembling liquidity games rather than free-market pricing.
For example, RAVE has over 90% of its supply concentrated in three suspected team or internally controlled Gnosis Safe wallets, which, by inducing short positions and tightening supply, caused short squeezes and price spikes. After the sharp rise, large sell-offs and whale exits followed; SIREN was also monitored to have over 93% of tokens controlled by market manipulators, leading to intense market operations and price surges; during Meme coin bnLife's rally, its controlling cluster continued to increase holdings, once exceeding 22%.
Fourth, narrative and news-driven catalysts. Developments such as funding progress, sector rotations, and hot concepts like AI provide short-term momentum for price increases, but their sustainability and upside are limited, mainly driven by trading rather than trend fundamentals.
It should be noted that among hundreds of millions of altcoins, only a tiny fraction can truly be manipulated to rally. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently pointed out that the traditional altcoin season of broad market rallies may have ended, and future cycles will be more differentiated and non-traditional.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost also stated that approximately 47 million cryptocurrencies have been issued globally, and the large quantity has severely diluted liquidity, making altcoins increasingly fragile.
Overall, although a few strong altcoins have amplified the market effect, most assets remain in a liquidity vacuum. Investors should stay alert, fully aware of profit-taking pressure, whale manipulation risks, and the volatility caused by low liquidity.

Gate Publishes the 2026 March Transparency Report 📊
Gate continues to steadily grow in trading performance, user scale, and ecosystem expansion.
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🔹 Global registered users surpass 51 million, supporting 4,500+ spot assets
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#GateTransparencyReport

Gate Pre-IPOs Major Launch Project: $SPCX. As the first top-tier global Pre-IPOs opportunity opened on Gate, this is only the beginning
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#加密市场回升
Pause period of 20 years vs. short-term compromise? Do you think Iran will make key concessions?
My personal view is that Iran is less likely to make key concessions in the short term, but there is some limited tactical space for compromise.
On one hand, the maritime blockade launched by the U.S. can be described as extreme pressure—intercepting all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, directly cutting off the lifeline of oil revenues. On the day negotiations broke down, WTI crude oil surged to $105.53 per barrel. But sanctions are a double-edged sword: blocking the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt nearly 20% of global oil transportation, and the resulting spike in oil prices would ultimately boomerang back on the U.S. economy itself. British Prime Minister Starmer has clearly stated that he does not support it. France even set up its own effort to organize a “Multinational Peace Operation.” Deep disagreements among allies greatly weaken the blockade’s actual deterrent effect.
On the other hand, Iran’s “resistance economics” has been tested many times already, and it is unlikely that it would give in in the short term. However, Trump has plans to visit China in mid-May. The U.S. does not want China to be pulled into the conflict, and it is also unlikely to intercept Chinese oil tankers—this objectively leaves a gap for Iran’s crude oil to keep being exported via China. The subsequent negotiation window remains open, and the next round of direct talks may be held on April 16 in Islamabad. The Iranian side may show cooperation on small-scope issues, but on core interests such as the nuclear issue, substantial concessions are basically out of the question.
How much do you see as the “ceiling” of this rebound?
This rebound right now is mainly a phase market driven by emotion-driven repair, and the “ceiling” is limited.
From the crypto market itself, BTC has broken above $74,000, with a 24-hour gain of 4.51%; ETH is up 7.56%; and the DeFi sector as a whole is up 5%, with Aave surging 10.75% and Lido DAO up nearly 10%. Market confidence has been boosted by rising expectations that the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement, leading to quick capital inflows into high-beta assets. But if you break it down carefully, you can see that the actual implementation of an agreement is still far off. The ceasefire period is only two weeks—a tactical window rather than lasting peace—and the gap between both sides’ bottom lines remains huge.
From the liquidity environment, elevated oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, and the room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates is being continuously squeezed. CME FedWatch shows that the probability the market assigns to rate cuts before the end of this year is only about 21%. With expectations of tighter liquidity, crypto assets as high-beta instruments face severe challenges to the sustainability of the rebound.
In the short term, BTC faces a psychological resistance zone at $75,000–$76,000. If substantial progress is reported in the next round of talks on April 16, the market may surge again; conversely, if the blockade persists and oil prices climb further to above $110, risk assets will face renewed pressure. Overall, the upper limit of this rebound is roughly around $78,000. The more likely scenario is range-bound volatility between $75,000 and $78,000, followed by waiting for a new direction to be chosen.
Given changes in the situation, how should the allocation ratios for crude oil, crypto assets, and precious metals be dynamically adjusted?
Against the backdrop of the current highly uncertain U.S.-Iran situation, it is recommended to adopt a “core + satellite” allocation approach: divide assets into three tiers and dynamically adjust the weights.
First tier: Crude oil— the core allocation direction for the current stage.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, the fundamental support for oil prices will be extremely solid. WTI crude oil has already returned above $97, and in some periods it has broken above $100. If the strait keeps closed, JPMorgan expects that global inventories will be completely exhausted around April 20; at that point, oil prices will very likely make another push higher. It is recommended that crude-oil-related assets account for 30%–35% of total positions, prioritizing oil ETFs with strong liquidity or oil and gas sector targets.
Second tier: Gold— a ballast for long-term safe-haven needs, but with insufficient short-term upside.
Gold has both safe-haven and inflation-hedging attributes, but the current market focus is that the rise in oil prices is suppressing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This weakens gold’s attractiveness in the short term. From a long-term perspective, persistent purchases by global central banks and weakening confidence in fiat currency provide structural support. It is recommended that gold allocation be 15%–20%, mainly in physical gold or gold ETFs, as “insurance” against extreme scenarios.
Third tier: Crypto assets— high-beta, flexible instruments, mainly for swing trading.
Crypto assets are currently highly correlated with technology stocks such as the Nasdaq, making them extremely sensitive to liquidity and market sentiment. If oil prices keep climbing to above $110, liquidity will tighten further, and the crypto market will face greater downside pressure. It is recommended that crypto asset allocation not exceed 15%–20%, and be mainly concentrated in mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH. Strictly control leverage and set up stop-loss protection. In the current choppy market, swing-trading strategies such as trimming into rebounds and buying on pullbacks are more effective.
Principles for dynamic adjustment: Watch three key variables—the April 16 negotiation outcome in Islamabad (which directly determines the direction of sentiment), whether oil prices break above $110 (which affects liquidity expectations), and the communication style of statements by Federal Reserve officials. If oil prices break above $110 and stay there, promptly reduce allocations to crypto and equity assets and increase gold. If negotiations unexpectedly deliver a breakthrough and oil prices fall to below $90, you can moderately increase the proportion of risk assets and seize the rebound window.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战
Is it another fleeting moment? - Analysis of the BLESS Price Surge
Last night, RAVE experienced high-level fluctuations, with funds flowing out, and BLESS followed suit, surging this morning to a high of $0.37482, a 300% increase within the range, then sharply falling back. Notably, from the daily chart, previous price rallies of BLESS also showed sudden spikes followed by quick drops, resembling a “flash in the pan” pattern. Will this time be the same? How are BLESS’s fundamentals? Is it a good time to buy the dip? Let’s take a look!
BLESS Project Overview
BLESS is the core utility token driving the Bless Network ecosystem, which itself is a decentralized edge computing platform aimed at disrupting traditional resource utilization models. Established in 2022 and headquartered in San Francisco, USA, it was originally called Blockless. Its vision is to build a “shared global computer,” aggregating idle computing power from laptops, desktops, smartphones, and other everyday devices worldwide to provide on-demand resources for AI, machine learning, data processing, and other compute-intensive tasks.
Core Advantages
1. Decentralized Edge Computing: Breaking the Cloud Monopoly
Bless Network leverages the idle resources of millions of users worldwide (such as PCs, MacBooks, smartphones) to push computing tasks closer to users at the “edge nodes,” avoiding the high latency and costs associated with traditional centralized data centers. This “user-as-node” model not only significantly improves resource utilization but also achieves a 90% cost reduction, providing cost-effective computing power for AI inference, real-time applications, and more.
2. WASM Secure Sandbox: Ensuring User Device Security
All computing tasks run within isolated environments based on WebAssembly (WASM), ensuring that code cannot access user privacy data or core system resources. This mechanism guarantees network computing capabilities while alleviating privacy and security concerns for ordinary users participating as nodes, greatly lowering the participation barrier.
3. Intelligent Task Scheduling and Anti-Attack Design
The network incorporates dynamic resource matching algorithms that automatically allocate tasks to the optimal nodes based on requirements such as geographic location, computing power type, and latency. Additionally, it employs anti-Sybil attack mechanisms (like Gregory-Latin square algorithms) to randomize task distribution, preventing malicious nodes from manipulating the network, thus ensuring stability and trustworthiness.
Token Economics Model
The total supply of BLESS tokens is 10 billion, with 1.84B in circulation and a market cap of $33 million. BLESS uses a dual-token model, where TIME is a points token during the testnet phase, earned by running nodes and staying online; after mainnet launch, it can be exchanged for BLESS tokens. BLESS is the core protocol and governance token of the network.
Token distribution considers various aspects of ecosystem development:
Community Incentives (35%): Rewards for nodes contributing idle computing resources, encouraging ecosystem growth and active participation;
Ecosystem/Foundation (about 20%): Supporting ecosystem project development, partnerships, marketing, etc.;
Investors (about 17%): Allocated to early-stage institutional and individual investors to fund project launch and growth;
Team (15%): Incentivizing core team members to ensure long-term stability and development;
Airdrops (10%): Distributed via airdrop campaigns to community users to enhance token liquidity and community influence;
Advisors (3%): Allocated to project advisors for their professional guidance and support.
Additionally, Bless Network has designed a unique value capture mechanism: when developers deploy applications and services on the network, 90% of the fees paid will be used to buy back BLESS tokens from the secondary market and permanently burn them, with the remaining 10% going into the treasury for ecosystem development. This deflationary mechanism will reduce circulating supply as network usage increases, potentially providing long-term support for the token’s price.
Application Scenarios
- Network transactions and fee payments
- Staking and network security
- On-chain governance and community participation
- Ecosystem incentives and node contribution rewards
- Cross-chain compatibility and ecosystem expansion
Secondary Market Performance and Future Outlook
Today, after a rapid surge, BLESS experienced a straight decline. From the 4-hour chart, the latest candle has completely engulfed the previous 4-hour gains, forming a hammer-like bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential further downside in the short term. On the daily chart, support is around $0.014. Those looking to buy the dip can consider positioning with stop-losses in place! That’s all for now. Wishing everyone daily prosperity!

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Cryptocurrencies are generally halved; what is their current position now?
In April, the cryptocurrency market is at a point that makes people both anxious and conflicted. Bitcoin has fallen from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080 down to around $70,000, a retracement of nearly 47%. Altcoins are even more brutal—Ethereum dropped to about $2,200, Ripple to $1.33, Solana to $82, and the GMCI30 index tracking the top 30 cryptocurrencies worldwide remains at a low level. Faced with this “halving” market, the most pressing question for investors is: Have we reached the bottom? Is now the time to buy-in, or should we continue to wait and see?
01 Divergence of Bulls and Bears: Where exactly is the market?
The current conflicting signals in the market can be summarized in one sentence—institutions are buying, retail investors are panicking, technicals are signaling a reversal, and macro factors are exerting pressure.
On the bullish side, big players like Goldman Sachs are standing behind. Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro explicitly stated in a research report in early April that the crypto market “may have already touched the cycle bottom.” His core argument is that after four consecutive months of net outflows, $1.32 billion of institutional funds flowed back into Bitcoin spot ETFs in March, indicating a shift from speculative selling to long-term capital accumulation. Yaro defines the $68,000 to $71,000 range as Bitcoin’s support zone and believes leverage liquidations have largely been completed.
Meanwhile, on-chain data is also signaling a bottom. The MVRV Z-Score is compressing, a metric historically highly correlated with major cycle lows; the 720-day Bitcoin indicator (TBBI) has fallen below 20, also indicating the end of a long-term downtrend. The number of Bitcoins held by accumulation addresses has surged from 2 million at the start of 2024 to 4.37 million on April 7, showing long-term holders are continuing to buy amid market panic.
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to a two-year low, with institutions continuously “buying the dip” in panic.
But the bearish voices cannot be ignored either. Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin’s current price structure is incomplete, and the market still needs to go through a downward shakeout. He expects the price to fall below $66k to clear out bullish liquidity before a meaningful rebound can occur.
CryptoQuant analyst oro_crypto also warned that the recent rebound from $66,000 to $72k was entirely driven by futures leverage and lacked spot buying support—an “unfunded water” situation. Some analysts, based on historical cycle patterns, believe it’s still too early. Crypto analyst @CryptoTice_ pointed out that, based on the patterns of the past four halving cycles, the true bottom usually forms between 800 and 950 days after the halving, which points to Q4 2026 rather than the current stage. He emphasized that a real bottom would require a complete collapse of market confidence and participants capitulating, whereas currently, some are still actively buying and expecting a short-term rebound.
02 Macro Environment: Hawkish Fed and Geopolitical Pressures
The macro environment in 2026 is not friendly to cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate remains between 3.50% and 3.75%, with inflation expectations still above the 2% target. March’s CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, and although core CPI was below the expected 2.7%, market expectations for rate cuts continue to be delayed—Polymarket’s probability of no rate cut in 2026 has surged from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%. More troubling, CME interest rate swaps show an 87.6% chance of holding rates steady in April, but the rate hike expectation has doubled to 12.4% since the beginning of the month.
A new Fed paper even found that since 2021, Bitcoin and Ethereum increasingly track macro signals like U.S. inflation and employment data, showing high correlation with risk assets. After ETF launches, the correlation between Bitcoin and Fed policy has reversed, with institutional investors now pricing in rate changes 6 to 12 months in advance.
On the geopolitical front, the Iran-U.S. talks in Islamabad broke down after 21 hours, the U.S. announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude oil surged to $98 per barrel. Following the news, Bitcoin dropped about 3% within 24 hours to around $70,600. For cryptocurrencies, geopolitical conflicts are now an unavoidable influence—they are no longer “digital gold” safe havens but are highly correlated with risk sentiment. As BTC Markets analysts noted, current geopolitical news is dominating short-term crypto market movements.
03 Technical Analysis: Cup-and-Handle Formation, but Momentum in Doubt
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart is forming a classic cup-and-handle pattern. The neckline is between $73,151 and $73,240. If the price can close above this level, the measured move target is about 11%, potentially reaching around $81,720. However, there are concerns. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a “hidden bearish divergence”—from March 4 to April 9, Bitcoin made lower highs while RSI formed higher highs, suggesting the downtrend may not be over yet, and the current rebound might still need further consolidation.
Key support is testing the 50-day exponential moving average at around $70,700. Resistance is at the $73,750 to $74,400 zone. If the price falls below the 50-day EMA, it could further retrace toward $60,000. The negative funding rate (-6%) and high short positions increase the risk of a short squeeze—once the price breaks resistance, a large number of short positions could be liquidated, pushing for a rapid rebound.
04 Market Liquidity: Stablecoin Inflows and ETF Funds Hit Three-Month Highs
The most recent and notable signals come from market liquidity. During the week of April 6–12, the market saw $2.56 billion in stablecoin inflows, with spot and perpetual contract trading volumes on centralized exchanges both increasing week-over-week. On-chain data shows funds are gradually flowing back from stablecoins into Bitcoin. Institutional inflows are also a positive sign. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $786 million last week, the strongest since February; on April 13, there was a single-day net inflow of $471 million—the largest in about three months. Strategy firms bought 13,927 Bitcoins during this period, worth about $1 billion. The rising share of institutional holdings and CME Bitcoin futures open interest surpassing $66k indicate a shift from retail-driven speculation to a more institutional, structural environment.
05 Institutional Views: Optimism from the Bulls, Caution from the Skeptics
Reviewing recent institutional and analyst opinions, the bullish camp includes: Goldman Sachs, which believes the market may have already hit the cycle bottom; Bernstein maintaining a $150k Bitcoin target by the end of 2026; and Tom Lee of Fundstrat, who estimates Bitcoin could reach $200k to $250k.
But cautious voices also warn investors: Bitf warns April will be a critical month for whether rate expectations can be maintained; several institutional analysts point out that resolving the U.S.-Iran conflict and whether Bitcoin can return to its historical highs are necessary conditions for the next bull run. ZFX Shanhai Securities offers a more moderate view, suggesting Bitcoin is currently in a low-volatility consolidation phase, with short-term sentiment neutral to slightly weak but with potential for a rebound. Multiple perspectives converge on one conclusion: the current position shows characteristics of a bottom zone, but the ultimate direction depends on whether macro variables can improve substantially. As André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, put it, Bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio is “significantly tilted in favor,” but this depends on geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions aligning.
Conclusion: How to navigate the current bottom game? Returning to the initial question: after the widespread halving of cryptocurrencies, is this the bottom?
Objectively, signals supporting the formation of a bottom are increasing—ongoing institutional inflows, accelerated on-chain accumulation, stablecoin fund reflows, and gradually improving technical patterns. But uncertainties are equally prominent—unclear macro rate-cut paths, unresolved geopolitical conflicts, and insufficient short-term momentum for a rebound. For ordinary investors, the following variables are worth continuous monitoring:
Can ETF inflows sustain—this is the most direct indicator of institutional sentiment;
The evolution of U.S.-Iran tensions—geopolitical conflicts are the biggest short-term disruptors;
The Fed’s statements at the April FOMC meeting—interest rate decisions will directly impact risk asset valuations;
Whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000—this is a key technical signal for a potential bullish reversal.
As many analysts have said, the April 2026 crypto market is in a “test of discipline” phase. The market’s bottom is never a single price point but a range; confirming the bottom is not based on any single indicator but on the resonance of multiple signals.

#加密市场回升 Earth-shattering reversal! US-Iran ceasefire sparks Bitcoin to break through $74k, with shorts wiped out by $2.6 billion overnight
The smoke from the US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has yet to clear, yet surprisingly, the US and Iran have sat down at the negotiation table. Iran has issued a strong signal of peace, instantly igniting market risk appetite, causing Bitcoin to surge sharply, breaking through the $74k mark. However, in this sudden celebration, shorts suffered a bloodbath, with a total liquidation of $531 million across the network within 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 80%. Contrasting sharply with the new high in price is the outflow of ETF funds, which reversed course and withdrew $291 million. The bulls and bears are entering a fierce contest, and the market stands at a crossroads.
1. Market overview: dual currencies soar, Bitcoin hits four-week high
On April 14, the cryptocurrency market experienced a long-awaited rally. Bitcoin (BTC) showed strong upward momentum, briefly rising to $74,900 in early trading, hitting the highest level since March 17. As of press time, Bitcoin’s price stabilized around $74,418, up 4.78% in 24 hours, with an 8.4% increase over the past 7 days. Intraday, the price steadily rose from the support level of $70,470, eventually breaking through previous resistance with increased volume, setting a new high at $74,800, establishing a fully bullish short-term structure.
Ethereum (ETH) performed even more aggressively, rising in tandem and testing the $2,393 high. As of press time, ETH is quoted around $2,350, up 6% in 24 hours, completely breaking previous consolidation patterns, with the prior range now serving as strong support.
From trading volume, market enthusiasm is high. Bitcoin spot trading volume is about $7.1 billion, with futures trading reaching $77.6 billion; ETH spot volume also increased, with futures following closely. The total crypto market cap rebounded to approximately $1.48 trillion, a 4% increase in 24 hours.
2. The cause of the surge: US-Iran peace signals ignite risk appetite
The core catalyst for this rally comes from a dramatic turn in Middle East geopolitical tensions. On April 13, U.S. President Trump claimed Iran had engaged with the U.S. government on potential peace negotiations, despite the U.S. having begun a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This news completely reversed the previous pessimistic expectations of ongoing deterioration.
Damien Loh, Chief Investment Officer of Ericsenz Capital, analyzed: "Although the blockade has started, the market generally believes that Trump has actually extended the timetable for reaching an agreement, and he is repeatedly seeking new negotiations, which is a positive signal."
As a result, oil prices, which had surged on the blockade news, retreated sharply, with WTI crude futures falling by 3%, to $96.07 per barrel. Asian stock markets rose, risk assets rebounded across the board, and market optimism grew that an agreement would help ease oil prices and boost economic growth.
Against this backdrop, the crypto market completed a stunning reversal, with Bitcoin strongly breaking through previous consolidation ranges. Digital assets not only absorbed the spillover of risk appetite from U.S. stocks but also benefited from the retreat of geopolitical risk premiums. This rally is similar in logic to the one two weeks ago when ceasefire news was announced—once the US and Iran return to negotiations, the previously accumulated high geopolitical risk premiums will quickly dissipate, and cryptocurrencies, as high-beta risk assets, will rebound first.
3. Liquidation data: shorts suffer a bloodbath, $426 million liquidated overnight
This sudden surge caused many short traders betting on declines to pay a painful price. CoinGlass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $531 million. In the battle between bulls and bears, shorts became the absolute "biggest casualties"—short liquidations totaled $426 million, while long liquidations were only $105 million. By coin, Bitcoin longs suffered heavy losses, with $11.53 million in long liquidations and $218 million in short liquidations; ETH was similarly brutal, with $21.76 million in long liquidations and $114 million in short liquidations. About 177,236 traders were liquidated in total, with the largest single liquidation order coming from Aster trading pair, valued at $12.4 million. This liquidation structure shows a clear "short-dominated" characteristic.
Notably, just before the surge, Bitcoin derivatives market funding rates briefly dropped to -0.253%, meaning short holders were paying longs, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment. When extremely negative funding rates coincide with declining exchange reserves, it often signals a short squeeze—this is the technical root of the bloodbath among shorts.
4. Internal market contradictions: dark currents behind new highs
Despite the strong price rally, internal market signals show signs of divergence that warrant caution.
🔴 Abnormal signal: ETF outflows of $291 million against the trend
Amid Bitcoin’s strong push above $74k and mainstream assets rallying, U.S. spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $291 million on April 13, with price gains coinciding with capital withdrawal, creating a classic "strong price but weak funds" scenario.
Structurally, this net outflow was mainly driven by Fidelity’s FBTC: a single-day outflow of $229 million, nearly accounting for all the loss; Ark ARKB and Grayscale GBTC recorded outflows of about $62.89 million and $38.25 million respectively. This is not an isolated phenomenon for individual products but a coordinated capital exit across several leading institutions on the same day, which can be seen as a typical "profit-taking at high levels" signal: early institutions that entered via discount arbitrage or trend-following strategies are reducing positions after the price hits new highs. However, unlike the usual "ETF outflows pressure spot prices," this round of concentrated outflows did not immediately drag Bitcoin below high levels; it remains near high ground, leaving a clear question mark over whether funds will flow back or continue to retreat.
🟢 Positive signals: on-chain data shows multiple favorable signs
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows a very different picture. Exchange reserves continue to decline: from February 15 to April 10, total Bitcoin reserves on exchanges decreased from 2.8 million BTC to 74k BTC, a reduction of about 100k BTC (~$7.3 billion at current prices) in roughly two months. The decrease in tokens held on exchanges reduces immediate sell pressure.
Whales betting on longs: contrasting with the high-level profit-taking in ETFs, on-chain whales are actively accumulating. A whale address associated with a crypto financial service currently holds 120k ETH (~$283.5 million) and 700 BTC (~$52 million) in long positions, with unrealized gains exceeding $36 million. Four other addresses have jointly accumulated 112.86 WBTC, worth about $74k, reflecting strong institutional confidence in Bitcoin spot at current levels. This divergence—ETF outflows versus whale accumulation—reveals a core market contradiction: traditional financial institutions are taking profits at high levels, while "old money" on-chain is increasing positions. The battle between bulls and bears is intensifying, and who will ultimately prevail remains uncertain.
5. Market battle and outlook: three key catalysts to watch
Analysts believe that the current Bitcoin price is oscillating between $68,000 and $75,000, entering a critical trading window leading up to 2026, with three major catalysts expected to unfold in the next two weeks.
Catalyst 1: Iran ceasefire agreement expiry (April 22)
The current US-Iran temporary ceasefire is set to expire on April 22. If both sides reach a formal agreement, risk appetite will further increase, and Bitcoin could break above $75,000 to test $78,000-$80,000; if negotiations fail and tensions escalate again, Bitcoin may retest support at $68,000 or even drop to $65,000.
Catalyst 2: Senate review of the "Clarity Act" (late April)
The highly anticipated U.S. "Clarity Act" (CLARITY Act) is expected to enter Senate review in late April. If the bill progresses smoothly, it will provide clearer regulatory frameworks for crypto assets and could serve as a mid-term catalyst.
Catalyst 3: FOMC meeting (April 28-29)
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting will be held on April 28-29. CME FedWatch shows a over 98% probability of holding rates steady in April and June, with rate cut expectations essentially zero. Market will focus heavily on Powell’s comments on inflation and rate outlook. Dovish signals will boost risk assets; hawkish stance may suppress rebounds.
Technical outlook: From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a rising low structure, forming a strong relay pattern, with previous consolidation zones turning into solid support. ETH also broke above the range with volume, thoroughly ending its previous consolidation pattern.
Key levels: Bitcoin: short-term support at $70,500 (former resistance now support), key support at $68,000; short-term resistance at $75,000, with a breakout targeting $76,000-$78,000. Liquidation pressure on exchanges is concentrated around $75,000; breaking this level could trigger a larger short squeeze.
Ethereum: short-term support at $2,200 (former upper boundary of consolidation), key support at $2,000; short-term resistance at $2,400-$2,500, with a breakout testing $2,600. ETH faces sell walls around $2,275-$2,350, but on-chain data shows buyers are accumulating on dips around $2,150-$2,180.
6. Institutional views: cautious optimism but beware of "last dip"
Damien Loh, CIO of Ericsenz Capital: "Although the blockade has started, the market generally believes Trump has extended the timetable for reaching an agreement, and he is repeatedly seeking new negotiations, which is a positive sign."
Analyst Thielen: predicts Bitcoin could rebound to $88,000 under basic scenarios, citing oversold signals in technical analysis and improved overall risk appetite.
Technical analysts warn: based on the recurring four-year cycle in Bitcoin bull markets, the current market is still interpreted as in a "selling phase," and the "last dip" may be near, so caution is advised for potential technical corrections.
ETF fund flow signals: despite Bitcoin approaching $72,262 and the "Fear & Greed Index" at a level of 12 ("extreme fear"), this combination indicates institutional buying remains resilient compared to overall market sentiment.
7. Trading strategies: responses in a divided market
Short-term traders
The market is in a heated battle between bulls and bears, with prices at key resistance zones of $74,000-$75,000.
Bullish approach: monitor support at $70,500-$71,000; if the price dips and stabilizes with volume, consider small long entries targeting $75,000-$76,000, with stops below $70,000. If volume breaks through $75,000 resistance, add to longs with targets of $78,000-$80,000.
Bearish approach: if the price rebounds to $75,000-$76,000 and shows signs of stagnation, consider small short positions targeting $72,000-$73,000, with stops above $76,500. Note that shorts are currently at a very disadvantageous position with high leverage risk.
Mid- to long-term holders are at a critical turning point—geopolitical risks easing, whales continuing to accumulate, and exchange reserves dropping to the lowest since 2023. For long-term investors, levels below $68,000 have long-term value and can be considered for phased accumulation. Focus on geopolitical developments after the ceasefire agreement expires on April 22.
Core risk warnings
Geopolitical volatility: The current ceasefire is temporary, expiring on April 22, with uncertainties. Any signs of negotiation breakdown could trigger renewed volatility, representing the biggest short-term risk.
ETF outflows: Continued large-scale outflows from ETFs could suppress price gains, creating a "strong price but weak funds" divergence.
Tax-driven sell-off: April 15 is the US tax deadline, with a potential $2.8 billion tax-related sell pressure, possibly disturbing prices in the short term.
Leverage risk: Current Bitcoin futures positions amount to about $56.3 billion, Ethereum about $30 billion, with high leverage levels that can be liquidated in volatile conditions.
Macroeconomic uncertainty: The probability of a rate cut by the Fed in April is virtually zero, and the high-interest-rate environment will continue to weigh on risk assets.

U.S. Central Command confirms that, starting April 13, it will impose a maritime blockade on Iranian ports, while international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is not affected. WTI crude oil prices break above $105, and Bitcoin falls back to around $71,000, with global energy and crypto asset markets responding in sync.