Three institutions are arguing, but I feel more at ease.

Let's start with three numbers:

26. 43%. 50%.

26 is today's Fear & Greed Index — Extreme Fear.

43% is the proportion of long-term holders realizing losses relative to total realized value — the highest since December 2022.

50% is the drawdown of this BTC cycle from its peak — the most "gentle" in history.

The same market, three data points, three completely different emotions.

I know what you're worried about.

When you see "Extreme Fear," when you see Glassnode saying long-term holders are cutting losses at $280 million per day, when you see ETH whales selling, when you see net outflows from ETFs — your heart races.

Is it going to drop further?

Should I cut my position?

This time is different from 2022, right?

I understand. I really do.

Today, I want to share three sobering perspectives.

Perspective 1: Glassnode says long-term holders are capitulating — and that's exactly the smell of a bottom.

Glassnode's exact words: BTC has been trading below the real market average price ($76,600) for 5 consecutive months, and the foundation for a bottom is forming.

The proportion of long-term holders realizing losses surged from 15% in February to 43% today, with daily losses of $280 million.

But historically, every time diamond hands start to break, it's a signal that a stage bottom is near — December 2022, end of 2018 — when has it been different?

When diamond hands start to cry, the bottom is not far away.

Perspective 2: Three institutions disagree — this means chips are changing hands.

Glassnode says it's late-stage base building but not yet confirmed.

CryptoQuant says this is a recovery within a bear market, not a trend reversal.

Bitwise says this is the mildest bear market in history.

If everyone agreed, that would be dangerous.

Now some are bearish and some are bullish — it means chips are shifting from the panicked to the calm.

Perspective 3: Bitwise says the mildest bear market — this isn't comfort, it's a fact.

Bitwise senior strategist: This cycle's BTC drawdown from the peak is about 50%, compared to 78% in 2022 and 84% in 2018.

Every cycle's bottom is higher.

Institutional clients are no longer asking whether crypto will survive — they're asking when to enter and how big their position should be.

If you think things are bad now, look back at end-2022 — BTC dropped from $69k to $16k, a 78% decline. That was bad. Now from $126k to $62k, a 50% decline.

The market hasn't worsened — your fear has amplified the pain.

So what should you do now?

If you still have ammo — buy in batches on big drops, don't go all-in. BTC is hovering around $62,000, the put/call ratio in the options market has dropped to 0.56, the lowest this year — shorts are already retreating.

If you're already fully invested — close the app and go to sleep.

Don't make any decisions during extreme fear.

90% of decisions made in fear are wrong. The remaining 10% that are right — you can't hold them either.

Every time you're scared by "Extreme Fear" and want to cut losses, think back: the fear at end-2022 was much worse than now, and BTC went from $16k to $126k.

Bottoms aren't shouted out — they're endured.

Every minute of fear you experience now is accumulating chips for the next bull market.#GUSD年化升至3.8% #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束 #伯恩斯坦称存储牛市可持续至2027年 $BTC $ETH $SOL