July 11 BTC/ETH market daily report

A typhoon is coming—this one seems pretty serious, so everyone please pay attention to safety! Once it lands, I’ll probably have water and power shut off too. While it hasn’t hit yet, I’ll share the weekend market setup in advance!

The market has pulled back up again recently. On the daily timeframe, a small double-top structure has formed. Jiangfeng believes the current market is still in a rebound rather than a reversal. Easing between Iran and the US and the ETF funds returning have acted as catalysts for the short-term rebound, but the daily downtrend has not yet been reversed. Bitcoin is still under pressure from the EMA55 and EMA200, and Ethereum’s daily big-picture structure remains bearish. So personally, I still lean toward a short-at-rallies mindset! However, for the weekend, we’ll still give some more solid ideas, because in the past two days the strategies have been relatively aggressive—there was limited room in unrealized profit, and ultimately we got repeatedly slapped!

From the daily perspective, the small double-top structure is formed around the recent high near 64,700 on 7/6 and yesterday’s high. This area becomes a short-term resistance zone. Above, around 65,800 the EMA55 daily moving average is suppressing price, around 66,000 the extension line is also suppressing, and around 68,000 the 0.618 level is suppressing as well. On the daily Bollinger Bands, the upper band is opening upward, creating upside room. For the short side, this is not a very friendly signal. So you still need to leave enough room for the rebound before attempting high shorts; that’s more prudent. Of course, this only represents Jiangfeng’s personal view. If you think the market has already reversed, then follow your own trading logic. I’m only expressing my opinion, and there’s also the possibility of being wrong!

Bitcoin:

Take short entries around 66,000～68,000 on the rebound. Stop loss must be controlled above 68,600. If you can’t accept a wide-range stop loss, reduce position size or stay on the sidelines. Targets are around 64,000～62,200～61,000, and for extreme cases, around 60,500～60,000!

Ethereum: give up the 1,830 resistance

Take short entries on the rebound near 1,855～1,880～1,910. Stop loss above 1,930. Targets to watch: 1,780～1,750～1,710～1,680

These strategy suggestions should still focus on trading with light position sizes. Lately the market volatility has been unstable. At such a key time node, there’s always the possibility of a regime change. So right now, I’m only lightly positioning at key levels—adding a controllable defense to gamble once! If the direction is right, we cooperate by moving the stop loss and holding longer. If the direction is wrong, admit it in time and stop loss decisively and exit!

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