# 比特币底部信号亮起，头部空头加仓

I want to start with a conclusion on this BTC cycle: I don’t think this is the bottom, nor do I think it’s a continuation of a trending move.
Many people get excited when they see this set of data:
Sharpe ratio rebounds after dropping below -20 → “historical bottom signal”
Top short positions keep increasing → “the trend will continue to fall”
But my understanding is the opposite
This isn’t a contradiction—it’s two expressions of emotion at the same stage
Bottom signal = “a post-hoc confirmation logic from history”
Short positions increasing = “real capital behavior in the current market”
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