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# Polymarket每日熱點

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Hantavirus just left, and James is here—what exactly is the 20% on Polymarket trading?
A week ago, we were talking about the Hantavirus pandemic, and today we’re discussing whether James will retire or not. This is the world of Polymarket—anything can be bet on, and anything can be traded.
As of May 12, the contract on Polymarket “Will James retire before next season?” has an implied probability of about 20%. More than $45,000 is being gambled on it. That’s basically one out of every five people placing bets who thinks Old Man James is done for this summer.
Is 20% high? Not really. Is it low?
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Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
Yes 11%
No 94%
$964.79 Vol
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Just charge forward 👊
#Polymarket每日熱點 Prediction of Selected B ($110)
Brief judgment logic of the current backdrop:
Supply risk premium: The ever-changing situation in the Middle East directly threatens the stability of the global oil supply chain. As the market worries about supply interruptions, it will quickly drive up the war premium.
Psychological threshold breakthrough: If the tense situation continues, oil prices are very likely to break through the important psychological level of $100. $110 is a reasonable expected price that reflects moderate conflict and indicates the situation has not yet fallen fully
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