Sometimes I want to reflect: when did retail investors truly start becoming the "bagholders"?
Actually, it’s not something that suddenly happened in a certain year, but rather the pricing power gradually shifted from the public market to the financing stage.
Initially, with projects like E, the ICO price was $0.31, and the secondary market was just over $0.4; the primary and secondary prices were almost the same, so even if you missed the earliest round, your cost wasn’t significantly higher, and the upside was fully reserved for the market later on. Between 2018 and 2020, for example with SOL

SOL1%

OP-0.04%

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FourHundredAndEighty

05-06 15:42

Looking at this year's NASDAQ line, you can actually understand one issue:
At this stage, the long-term holding strategy for ordinary people isn't that simple.
Many people hear "long-term holding" and interpret it as buying and not moving, ignoring dips, and not selling when it rises.
But the problem is, when assets have already reached this level, long-term holding faces not just normal fluctuations, but collective overextension in valuation, liquidity, profit expectations, and market sentiment.

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FourHundredAndEighty

05-06 12:51

Looking at the NASDAQ's annual line, you can actually understand one issue:
At this stage, the long-term holding strategy for ordinary people isn't that simple.
Many people hear "long-term holding" and interpret it as buying and not moving, ignoring dips, and not selling when prices rise.
But the problem is, when assets have already reached this position, long-term holding faces not just normal fluctuations, but collective overextension in valuation, liquidity, profit expectations, and market sentiment.
Buffett holding 400 billion USD in cash is not without reason.
Because he himself

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-29 14:32

BTC has been on an upward trend since the end of March, with a total increase of over 13,000 points so far. However, even if there is a short-term rebound, it is most likely just a technical correction after the rise and not the start of a new main upward wave. From the current market situation, Bitcoin has been quickly suppressed and pulled back twice when approaching around 79,000, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The 80k level has always been difficult to break through effectively. This level has now become the dividing line between bulls and bears. Even if there is a short-term reb

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-29 11:37

BTC has been on an upward trend since the end of March,
with a total increase of over 13,000 points so far.
However, even if there is a short-term rebound,
it is most likely just a technical correction after the rise,
not the start of a new major bull wave.
From the current market situation,
Bitcoin has been quickly suppressed and pulled back twice near 79,000,
indicating heavy selling pressure above.
The 80k level has always been difficult to break through effectively.
This level has now become the current dividing line between bulls and bears.
Even if there is a short-ter

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-27 13:52

MSTR currently has approximately $8.5 billion in debt (including preferred stock and convertible bonds), most of which is unsecured. This means that even if BTC drops to $1, creditors have no right to directly liquidate the company's Bitcoin holdings. The company currently has about 2.5 years' worth of cash reserves set aside for paying interest and dividends. As long as it can make interest and dividend payments on time, MSTR theoretically does not need to be forced to sell its coins and exit the market.

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-27 11:02

MSTR currently has approximately $8.5 billion in debt (including preferred stock and convertible bonds), most of which is unsecured. This means that even if BTC drops to $1, creditors have no right to directly liquidate the Bitcoin held by the company.
The company currently has about 2.5 years of cash reserves set aside for paying interest and dividends. As long as it can make interest and dividend payments on time, MSTR theoretically does not need to be forced to sell its coins and exit the market.
Additionally, as long as there are people willing to buy its stock, it can sell shares thro

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-26 15:32

ETH market seems to be repeating history, currently brewing a second descending triangle. The current trend is hovering around 2300, and perhaps this is already an unattainable high in the future. I firmly believe that the bottom of this bear market will not be near 1700. Referring to the decline of the previous descending triangle, the bottom of this round is most likely to form around 1300. The estimated cycle is about 25 days. All traders must strengthen their defenses to avoid losses from expanding. If there is a rally on Monday,

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-26 12:41

ETH market seems to be replaying history
Currently brewing the second descending triangle
The current trend is hovering around 2300
Perhaps this is already an unattainable high in the future
I firmly believe that the bottom of this bear market will not be near 1700
Referring to the decline of the previous descending triangle to estimate
The bottom of this round is likely to form around 1300
The cycle is expected to be about 25 days
Bullish traders must take protective measures to avoid losses from expanding
If there is a pump on Monday
I will decisively add to short positio

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PaiXiaobai:

ETH market seems to be replaying history
Currently brewing the second descending triangle
The current trend is hovering around 2300
Perhaps this is already an unattainable high point in the future
I firmly believe that the bottom of this bear market will not be near 1700
Referring to the decline of the previous descending triangle to estimate
The bottom of this round is likely to form around 1300
The expected cycle is about 25 days
Bullish traders must make sure to protect themselves to avoid losses from expanding
If there is a pump on Monday
I will decisively add to short positions in the 2350-2400 range
Then just wait for the market to develop as expected

FourHundredAndEighty

04-25 19:12

希望ASTEROID完成penguin完成不了的那一环，币安做个人，如果完成了加上我的秘密武器，开局起码手中揣着几百万的流动资金，可惜前面pvp输，不然一半ASTEROID一半秘密武器根本就是必赢的局，要是ASTEROID输了，那接下来就只能裸囤秘密武器，后续再上飞轮用时间去再稳健获取10×➕，或者后续再大干一个mem

PENGUIN-8.83%

PVP-9.2%

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-24 18:32

If BTC surges again, the situation will become very clear. The main force has spent over twenty days vigorously pushing the price up. The upward cycle has been fully consumed. In a bear market environment, it is difficult to see continuous large gains for one or two months. Therefore, the probability of subsequent declines will greatly increase. Currently, this level has triggered a large number of short positions, causing many shorts to doubt themselves. At the same time, the funding rate has turned positive, which is a sign of positive market change. Although there may be short-term adjustme

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-24 15:43

If BTC surges again, the situation will be obvious.
The main force spent more than twenty days making a strong push upward.
The time cycle for the rise has already been fully used up.
Against the backdrop of a bear market environment,
it’s difficult to see a continuous uptrend lasting one or two months.
In that case, the probability of further declines will increase significantly.
At this level, a large number of shorts have already been liquidated.
This has left many shorts trapped in self-doubt.
At the same time, the funding rate has also turned positive.
This is a signal o

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-16 18:32

如果币安人生能去到2B打开上限，那么手中有一张牌能够安稳吃到50-100×，那几乎在这轮开局就是A7后续几乎是躺着来了，更何况还有另一张无敌飞轮牌，希望能够按预期走，如果能早点，也许我便不会因为自卑而错过那个女孩，可是那样，我也不会有机会遇见她，随遇而安，这是我七八年来第一次有这么沉重的失

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-08 16:42

From February to March, the entire market was focused on BTC and ETH, with widespread expectations that they would plummet. Many speculated that the bottom of this cycle would be around 40k or 50k, and the market consensus was so strong that it was astonishing. Now, as we enter April, the market is at a critical juncture to choose a direction. This high level of consensus makes me cautious. It reminds me of when BTC was at 120k, and the market unanimously expected it to surge to 150k or even 200k, but then it was hit by the "Black Swan event on October 11," resulting in a sharp decline.

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-06 12:22

Q2 From a technical indicator perspective, there should be a decent rebound, but in reality, it will be dragged down by the US stock market, and most likely it will continue to fluctuate within a wide range!
There is a chance, but not much. When it rises, don’t chase; when it falls, buy the dip for a swing trade!
The red circle on the left is the core accumulation zone before the previous breakout, and the red circle on the right is the current violent pullback, which in trading is called “structural support confirmation.”
The 60k-65k range is the main force’s bottom support zone; the true wil

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-05 07:22

Trump's statements boil down to three points: 1. Withdrawal in 2-3 weeks; 2. During this time, Iran will be sent back to the Stone Age; 3. The United States has won big and has been winning all along, and will continue to win—winning big, winning big. As expected, he calls for a ceasefire before the market opens and says they want to fight after hours.

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FourHundredAndEighty

04-05 04:33

Trump's statements are just three points:
1. Withdraw in 2-3 weeks
2. Will send Iran back to the Stone Age during this period
3. The U.S. has won big and has been winning, and will continue to win—winning big, winning big, winning big
Sure enough, they call for a ceasefire before the market opens and say they want to fight after hours.

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FourHundredAndEighty

03-29 15:42

I don't have much to talk about today. I believe that next week, the market should move upward, or at least reach a support zone of 638-647, which can serve as a foundation. Additionally, the fan sector can start paying attention now—there are only about two months left until the World Cup. Most of the hype is happening one or two months in advance. Currently, I’m mainly watching a few: CHZ, Santos, and OG.

CHZ-1.49%

SANTOS3.14%

OG6.82%

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BillAh:

CHZ is the leading project in the sports sector, Santos is the leading project in football-themed coins, and Clutch is the leading project for the World Cup mascot. You may want to keep an eye on Clutch.

FourHundredAndEighty

03-28 17:42

Why does it feel less lively? Are the brothers feeling down because of the dip? By the way, a few buddies asked me if I only go long and don't short. It seems to be somewhat true. For example, this time I said I was taking a break when it was at 72k, and then in the comment section, someone asked when I would go long. I told them if they follow my advice, now is the time. Also, to my loyal and golden fans, I told them I won't be trading in the next few days.

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FourHundredAndEighty

03-24 13:02

Trading is fundamentally not complicated at all. The core logic is clear and easy to understand—grasp the essentials and you can avoid taking detours.
Step one is to first determine the overall market direction: is it really a bull market or a bear market? Get the direction right, and you've already succeeded halfway at trading. Many people get tangled up in complex indicators and end up overlooking the most straightforward bull and bear characteristics.

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