ZhangShuofeng

ETH Tuesday data shows a slight recovery, but it's only a "mild increase."
Net outflows have turned into small inflows, with insufficient momentum.
Currently, almost all buying activity is supported by BlackRock.
At this stage, the market is waiting for two key events:
First, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and
Second, the peace agreement on Wednesday/Friday.
Interestingly, the current risk-averse sentiment for ETH is actually lower than for BTC.
The logic is that ETH has already fallen enough earlier; those who needed to sell have already done so, and current holde

Tuesday’s spot ETF funding picture is overall muted: aside from Grayscale showing a more noticeable net outflow, institutions such as BlackRock are generally in a slight net-buying mode. Most likely, this is a risk-avoidance reaction to the interest-rate decision meeting early Thursday morning. Although the U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary consensus, geopolitical risks still leave room for uncertainty until the final agreement is signed and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is fully restored.
As for this interest-rate decision meeting, Waller’s stance remains unclear. Personally, I

ETH made a short position yesterday, and I just took most of the profits to protect the position. BTC also took a short-term long position, but it didn't go well and dropped several hundred points.
The key is to watch the trend over the next two days. ETH needs to break above 1790 to have a chance for a larger rebound; otherwise, it's just a rebound targeting the decline in the blue segment of Chart 1, and the structure is already complete.
Compared to recent volatility of US stocks like SPCX, META, and others, cryptocurrencies are not lagging by much. The volatility of SPCX on the 1-hour char

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.17
When BTC broke below 60k, I mentioned that if it rose above the green Gann angle line 3/1 (60,800), it was likely to rebound. Knowing and doing as one should, after BTC crossed that level, I took all short positions off the table. Recently, BTC's rebound has reached 13.8%. What's next?
The next two days are very critical. The rebound strength over the past couple of days looks okay on the hourly chart, but every time the daily candle closes, it becomes disappointing. Both of the last two daily candles closed below the blue Gann angle line 2/1 (66,300), which is n

On Monday, Bitcoin spot ETF capital sentiment has slightly improved, which was expected—after the successful signing over the weekend, some investors are beginning to bet on a short-term rebound. But according to data, except for BlackRock recording a significant net buy, other institutions still mainly experienced outflows.
The market is likely pricing in the "good news" being realized: funds that had previously factored in the increase are choosing to take profits and exit. Overall, whether buying or selling, these are minority actions; most traditional funds remain on the sidelines, in a wa

NVDA Market Analysis 2026.06.16
In the early month's tweet, it was mentioned that Nvidia starting from 236.54 is most likely a correction rather than a new decline, and after dropping more than 15%, the decline has halted. What’s next?
The fundamentals have not changed; the core logic remains AI demand, data center growth, and the next-generation product cycle.
But one point to note — after a long-term rally, Nvidia's valuation and expectations are no longer low. It may enter a phase where "the fundamentals are strong, but the market needs to digest valuation and expectations again."
In the ma

Today, the data on long-term Bitcoin holders has once again hit a new all-time high—currently, 14,945,950 BTC (accounting for 74.54% of the circulating supply) have an average holding period of over 155 days.
This data confirms that long-term holders are continuing to accumulate. Looking back to early June, influenced by tense US-Iran relations, BTC experienced a pullback, and long-term holders slightly reduced their holdings, while exchange reserves increased. However, as the US signaled a move toward full peace, this "smart money" quickly returned, resuming buying activity.
Note: The "long-t

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.16
The two levels mentioned yesterday for BTC were both hit precisely?
Tested 67,300✅ The daily close also just below 66,300✅
The upcoming days' market is very critical, directly determining the next 40-60 days' trend:
If the decline from 59,100-67,300 is a rebound targeting the blue segment in Chart 2, its structure is already complete. The daily close is below 64,000, and before 8 a.m. on June 22, Gann time, it cannot break through the blue Gann angle line 2/1 (66,400); otherwise, the rebound may end;
In the following days, if the daily candles close above 66,400

I have to admit, this time Trump "guessed" right again. Just yesterday, the market was generally skeptical about signing on Sunday due to Israel's disruptions and Iran's tough stance, but the plot has now reversed.
Although the terms announced by Iran seem to put the U.S. on the back foot (even mentioning war reparations), Trump has not acknowledged that this is the final agreement. However, this no longer matters. Trump has announced that all details will be released after the signing on Friday. For the market, the specific content of the agreement is not crucial; what matters is whether the

Last Friday, Trump announced that peace talks are almost finalized, with a 70-80% chance of signing an agreement over the weekend, and the market immediately responded positively, with BTC finally ending its net outflow.
But I looked at the data, and this rally seems more like a "news-driven rebound" rather than a "crazy bull run driven by funds." Why do I say that? Because traditional investors haven't really jumped in. The logic is simple: even if BTC is now at the floor price, look at the US stock market— even buying index funds, this year's growth potential looks more stable than in the cr

Although Bitcoin on-chain data has performed steadily this week, the capital flow for ETH spot ETFs shows signs of fatigue. Notably, both BlackRock and Grayscale have recorded net inflows in Bitcoin products, while Ethereum continues to face ongoing net redemptions. This clearly reflects that: currently, traditional incremental funds are highly concentrated in Bitcoin, and there is still weak willingness to allocate to other altcoins.
However, the current selling pressure has not significantly intensified, suggesting that market holdings are still mainly in the hands of long-term holders, with

ETH Market Analysis 2026.06.15
On June 1st, it was pointed out that ETH's decline was not over yet and a target of 1500 was given. Subsequently, ETH dropped from 2020 to 1505. Currently, since rebounding from 1505, the increase has reached over 16%, and this week we will closely monitor this level:
The green Gann angle line on 3/1 is currently at 1790. If this line can be broken this week, the rebound still has momentum, and the 1500 rebound level may expand into a full correction against the red segment of the chart. After breaking and stabilizing above 1790, closely watch 1860-1902; in terms

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.15
Last week, the importance of the Green Gann angle line 3/1 (60,800) and the Blue Gann angle line 2/1 (66,300) was emphasized. Subsequently, BTC fell to 60,800 and rebounded. At the same time, the group was notified to close most of the short positions.
Currently, BTC is near the Blue Gann angle line 2/1. What’s the outlook?
Recently, pay attention to whether the daily candlestick can close above 66,300. If it closes above and the pullback does not break the daily low of 59,100, then the rebound starting from 59,100 could expand into a correction targeting the ove

Just received the news, both Trump and the Pakistani Prime Minister are hinting that the peace agreement between the US and Iran might be signed this Sunday.
But what about Iran? Their stance is a bit different—only saying "ready to sign," not confirming the signing on Sunday.
So now, this situation has turned into a game of "Truth or Dare," where we still have to guess who’s being genuine and who’s not.
But I have a sense of what's really going on. No matter what the terms are, the probability of it actually being signed is quite high. The only variable is whether it gets stuck on signing thi

MSTR Market Analysis 2026.06.12
From a fundamental perspective, the core issue for MSTR is not the disappearance of the BTC narrative but rather the simultaneous pressure on the stock price from three dimensions: BTC price decline, rising financing costs, and shrinking valuation premiums.
The company is still executing the main strategy of "continuously increasing BTC holdings," but this also brings a problem—MSTR is too heavily affected by BTC price fluctuations. In Q1, due to a decline in BTC's fair value, the company recorded a large unrealized loss, with net losses reaching $12.54 billion.

Pop Mart 9992 Market Analysis 2026.06.12
Since breaking in from the low point, Pop Mart has now gained over 26%. Next, focus on the 187.2 level; if it can hold above this level, there is still upward momentum.

ETH Market Analysis 2026.06.12
The Green Gann Angle 3/1 is the dividing line for ETH's price trend; it should be closely watched in the coming days!
Next, we focus on the Green Gann Angle 3/1 (1790) in Chart 1; only if the price stabilizes above the rebound level starting at 1505 will it expand (as shown in the red box). Under this path, the decline will come to an end, and the rebound can last until late June or early July. Otherwise, the movement will only be a rebound against the blue segment of the decline shown in the blue box, and after the rebound ends, it will continue to seek a bottom