ATacticallySteadyAndCautious

I want to sincerely say a few heartfelt things that have been kept in my heart for a long time to my family members who have truly been with me, all the way, earnestly and conscientiously.
In the past days when I was a full-time researcher and market analyst for the crypto space and a market-metrics content creator, from the loud and bustling days of the bull market to the long, agonizing suffering of the bear market—through every rise and fall, we’ve all made it through together. I’m deeply grateful to every single person who is willing to trust me unconditionally, who tolerates my occasional

We still haven’t reached the absolute bottom of the next cycle.
First, let me explain what MVRV is. It reflects the relationship between the average buy-in cost of everyone across the entire network. What does the green zone represent? It means the coin’s price has already fallen below everyone’s holding cost—everyone across the whole network is selling to cut losses and taking losses. Historical evidence shows that selling pressure will only truly be exhausted when the white line drops into the green area below—that is, the historical absolute “iron bottom.”
In 2012, 2015, 2019, 2020 3/12, th

Currently, the weekly level has not fully broken below MA200. A decent small rebound is expected between 56-54, with the rebound target tentatively set at the previous range of 67-69.
The market still needs one final surge to achieve the last shakeout. On November 7, 2022, the weekly level dropped by 20%, a capitulation drop caused by panic selling from miners, long-term holders, and institutions. This round is expected to see the same. Based on all current data, a US stock market crash is highly likely.
When the price retests the weekly MA200, retail investors will be extremely bullish. From

July's Steady Player Rankings, Comment Section Starts Now
July is almost here
The market hasn't given a clear direction yet
Today, I won't dive into overly complex market movements
Let's kick off a fan check-in session
From the last fan appreciation event, I noticed one thing
What really makes the comment section interesting
Is never just simple check-ins
But the pitfalls you've stepped into in real trading
Some people got repeatedly rekt by fake breakouts
Some stubbornly held through slow grind-downs
Some say they're steady traders
But their comments are full of hidden anxiety
This time, the

July Macro Outlook: Ignore the Calendar, Focus Only on the Market's Conviction
Let's talk about the overall rhythm of July's market
This month is packed with key data—Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, Fed rate decision, GDP, PCE—all released in a concentrated period.
Anyone trading knows that when data clusters, it's hard to grasp the rhythm
Market variables update quickly, and as soon as you've sorted out a judgment, a new data point forces you to rethink.
I don't recommend obsessing over the economic calendar
Don't dwell on data release times; focus on the actual market movement after the data hits.
At

This week, I finished my short-side play.
A week has passed, and the market has shown its hand.
Starting from around 64K BTC this week, all the way down to around 59K, I only focused on one thing:
Whether the rebound had strength,
Whether the buying support was firm,
Whether the sentiment was still inflated.
So my main theme this week was simple:
Short.
I’m not saying I was bearish only after the drop happened,
nor am I adding a “I told you so” after the market moved.
I’m putting the screenshots directly out there:
7 days, 20 trades, 20 wins, 0 losses.
Win rate: 100%, R

Gold breaks 4000, today’s market feels off
After gold dropped below 4000, my first reaction wasn’t that gold is crashing
But rather these markets are clearly not in sync
Micron’s earnings lit up AI and tech stocks
The market feels like it’s recovering, but the dollar is still pushing higher
Gold getting smashed back below 4000 is just awkward
If the whole market were truly recovering, gold wouldn’t look this ugly
If it were a full risk-off move, tech shouldn’t have been lifted by Micron
So today isn’t simply about ups and downs
It’s capital picking its spots
Gold is weak, m

Tomorrow, will it be another black swan?
Tonight, my stance is very clear.
I continue to be bearish.
BTC dropped from around 63.2K to 59.1K today
down over 4% in 24 hours
ETH is weaker
hit from around 1690 to near 1550
a drop of nearly 5%
After this line came crashing down
the bulls have already lost their breath
Tomorrow is the 26th options expiration again
and it also falls on a Friday
With this combination, I don't want to pretend to be neutral
I hold short positions
and I'm looking at a script that continues to push down
The reason for today's decline is not complicated
Risk assets are gen

This week, my main focus on ETH is on one logic:
Above 1800, it's not where I chase longs, but where I start to watch for short-term reactions.
The reason is simple:
ETH is not currently showing a strong reversal, but a weak rebound.
The daily EMA200 is at 2437, and the weekly EMA200 is at 2616.
The price is only around 1750 now.
That means it's still far from truly regaining strength.
Rising to 1800 doesn't mean the bull is back, it can only be called a relief rally after a big drop.
This week, I divide ETH into three segments:
1750-1800
Current correction zone, can bounce

This time in the comment section, I am truly a bit touched.
Let's wrap up the Dragon Boat Festival fan appreciation event first:
The friends who were drawn this time, the benefits have already been sent out.
Brothers and sisters who won the draw, let me know when the funds arrive.
It's not to prove anything, just to let everyone know, this is not just talk, there are real people working hard on this, and real people receiving it.
I was scrolling through comments last night, actually looking for a while.
I thought many people would casually write a few words to participate, but no.

Today’s market, I don’t want to start from the levels.
Starting from the levels, it’s easy to turn into the old pattern: where’s the top, where’s the bottom, looks professional but doesn’t really get to the core.
What I want to say more today is that this market feels a bit “awkward.”
BTC was pushed down near 62K yesterday, and today it climbed back above 63K.
You say it’s weak, but it didn’t continue to deteriorate.
You say it’s strong, but it doesn’t have that kind of aggressive push to snap back the sentiment.
The market isn’t unresponsive.
It’s just responding in a stingy way.
After Wosh’s

Dragon Boat Festival Benefits, come directly.
Last time, I already gave away a round of fan appreciation.
The picture shows some records from June 17th, transferring 10 USDT one by one.
So this time, no preamble.
Dragon Boat Festival is here, continuing to give out.
20 people, each gets 10 USDT.
Plus one super blind box grand prize.
But this time, I don’t want the comment section to be full of “participate.”
That’s too boring.
Comment section should follow this format:
My most outrageous transaction was: ____
If I could do it over, I would: ____
No need to write it too

Brothers, Wosh's words don't need to be overly sophisticated.
Just one sentence:
The Federal Reserve currently has no plans to soothe the market.
Look at today’s trading scene, it’s quite solid.
BTC was pressed down from above, and is now still swinging around 62.8K.
ETH is a bit weaker, around 1685.
The most awkward thing now isn’t the drop.
It’s that after falling, it’s stuck here, neither about to collapse nor truly recover.
This kind of market is easiest to make people anxious.
Those wanting to buy more see a rebound and say the bad news is exhausted.
Those wanting to s

Tomorrow early morning, don't stick your neck out too soon.
Tonight BTC is hovering around 65.7K, ETH is still stuck below 1800.
You say it's weak, but it hasn't broken through directly.
You say it's strong, but it indeed hasn't stepped up.
Isn't it awkward? This is the most annoying market before the news.
Tomorrow early morning, watch the Federal Reserve. Don't just focus on "cut or not," the real concern is how Powell will comment on future interest rates and inflation.
Tonight I’m only watching two lines:
If BTC can't break above 66.5K-67K, don't rush to call for recovery.

Brothers, today BTC is rebounding.
But let me say this first:
Don't get excited every time you see a rise in this market.
BTC is currently around 65.7K, ETH around 1720.
It looks like it’s recovering, but it’s not time to close your eyes and relax yet.
There’s been a lot of news lately.
Sometimes they say institutional demand is weak, sometimes they say risk assets are falling back due to AI sentiment.
Can you interpret these things? Yes, you can.
But don’t take the news as a reason to open a position.
Honestly, the market isn’t without stories.
It’s whether the money has t

Brothers, let's do a report this weekend and share some honest thoughts.
This week's market has been exceptionally fierce.
BTC dropped from around 72,000 to the low 50,000s, hitting as low as about 59.1k.
Nearly 20% decline in a week—this isn't just a normal correction; it's testing many people's positions, stop-losses, and mental state all at once.
And it's not just the crypto world that's getting hit.
In the US stock market, the Nasdaq plunged 4.2% in a single day, dropping over 1,100 points, and the S&P wiped out nearly $1.8 trillion in market value in one day.
The chip index wa

Brothers, these past couple of days with Bitcoin, I'll briefly explain my trading approach.
BTC hasn't been steadily climbing these days, right?
The most annoying part of this kind of market is that it doesn't give you a clear direction all at once, but instead moves up and down, messing around.
My approach here is very simple:
When it drops, I reduce my position; when it rises, I add to my position.
Not blindly adding, nor stubbornly holding.
It's about adjusting the position and average price gradually according to the market rhythm.
Initially, the average price was around 61,5