招财锦宝

As long as the data on July 14 is not good, the Fed's knife to raise interest rates in September will be hanging overhead. A rebound? That's an opportunity for you to escape, not a clarion call for you to go all in.
So how do you play it?
First, going long on crude oil is more logical than going long on BTC.
U.S. military bombing + lifting of sanctions = supply gap. This is a solid fundamental, not an emotional hype. The bullish logic of crude oil is ten times clearer than BTC.
Second, if you have to trade BTC, don't bet on direction; use "breakout and follow".
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There's not much to say about the trend of ETH — it's no different from the weekend trend, the positions are still the same, so let's keep it brief. The yellow downtrend line of ETH has been broken, and it's now trying to move back above the trend line. As long as ETH can reclaim the area above the trend line, it still has the strength to challenge the previous high of 1808 again. Once it breaks through the previous high of 1808, the new high of 1848 will come. The 1746 level below is ETH's lifeline. If 1746 is broken, 1692 will inevitably come, though it may be delayed. Only when 1692 is brok

Citigroup has directly torn off this fig leaf: the drop in the unemployment rate is entirely due to the labor force participation rate plunging from 61.8% to 61.5%. 832k people have exited the labor force.
If the participation rate had remained unchanged, the actual unemployment rate would be over 4.5%.
This is not the job market improving. It’s people simply giving up looking.
Ridiculous.
The three pillars supporting rate hikes—rising oil prices, accelerating wages, and core PCE above target—have all collapsed. Oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and after the methodol

The 50% drop in 2022 was triggered by the Terra/LUNA collapse, 3AC's liquidation, and FTX's blowup — a chain of explosions, each forcing sell-offs, stacking passive sell pressure on top of passive sell pressure.
This time is different. No major counterparty has collapsed yet; Strategy holds over 580,000 BTC without facing a liquidity crisis, and ETF redemptions have been orderly. This is institutional de-risking, not forced liquidation — ETF redemptions, basis trade unwinding, and capital rotation into AI stocks are the main sources of selling pressure. Retail panic is a follower, not the tr

Fundamentals: The biggest shorts have surrendered, how much higher can it go?
Breaking news! The top whale sat0shi777 with a 90% win rate, after a $77.79B short position, finally cut losses at $9.38 million. When a short of this magnitude is liquidated, it often means short-term sentiment has peaked. The market maker's pumping goal is complete, and the next step is to harvest retail traders chasing longs!
Technicals: Bearish divergence confirmed, a pullback is imminent!
On the daily chart, the MACD shows a golden cross, but the 4-hour chart has clear bearish divergence—the price is still oscil

The behavior of on-chain long-term holders is worth noting.
Historically, during significant BTC pullbacks, the key observations are:
Whether long-term holders (LTH) continue to hold their coins. Whether whales are continuously accumulating. Whether BTC balances on exchanges are declining.
If long-term holders are still stacking coins while exchange balances keep decreasing, it indicates that selling pressure mainly comes from short-term investors, which is usually healthier than a concentrated sell-off by long-term holders.
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Market sentiment is deteriorating. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold a small amount of BTC, raising concerns about whether companies will continue to reduce their holdings, which has intensified panic.
From a technical perspective, the June monthly candlestick formed almost a long-bodied bearish candle (Marubozu), indicating that bears almost completely dominated the market throughout the month. This type of monthly candlestick pattern is relatively rare and usually indicates that the market trend remains weak. In the short term, it is necessary to observe whether it can re-establish a fo

BTC has been oscillating all afternoon without managing to stabilize above the 59078 resistance level. It only made a false breakout upward, and now it has fallen back below 59078. If BTC cannot return above 59078 and back into the flag pattern, it cannot sustain a rebound. Currently, the lower boundary of the flag and 59078 form a double resistance, making a breakout difficult. Think of it this way: How hard it was to break below 59078 when it was a support level is exactly how hard it is to break above it now.
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The hardest-hitting narrative in the market right now is AI hardware. Stocks like SanDisk and Micron have solid fundamentals and strong performance—the key is that in the same trillion-dollar market-cap capital game, a single day of Micron’s fluctuations can rival Bitcoin’s entire week of amplitude. For hot money, volatility is opportunity, and efficiency is belief. With the same amount of capital, putting it in crypto might still mean worrying about a midnight sell-off; but putting it into U.S. semiconductor stocks lets you finish a beautiful campaign during the day—who would still be willing

In the trading arena, the thing we lack most is not opportunity, but principal. Although crowded positions from large players carry the risk of being trampled, market irrationality often surprises us. When analyzing the charts, it’s wise to pay more attention to the funding rate and the movements of major players, and not blindly chase rises or sell off. Controlling your position size and maintaining a solid defense is the key to long-term success.
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Store-of-value assets are falling across the board, with gold, silver, and Bitcoin all plunging simultaneously
These three assets usually have little correlation, but they share a common label: store-of-value assets that hedge against fiat currency depreciation
When all three collapse at the same time, the market is actually saying one thing: the devaluation trade logic has fallen apart
Gold broke below $4,000 intraday today, with an annual high of $5,586, now at $4,103, down roughly 28% from its peak
Silver is even worse, having plunged over 50% from its peak to below $59
$BTC now

Capital is about to start harvesting, and funds are beginning to flow out! Storage, chips, AI—all have been hyped to their peak! Just look at gold and silver from a few months ago, and you'll know! Silver has dropped 28% over these past few months, and gold has dropped 58%!
Funds are fluid and profit-driven! Wall Street never stops! Institutions and market makers won't buy at the top to give retail investors free money! The crypto market is currently in the late stages of a bear market, and soon the funds flowing out of the stock market will flow into crypto. Go long on ETH and BNB immediate

BlackRock tells the market "long-term bullish on Bitcoin" while moving coins to the exchange. Classic move: talk bullish, wallet bearish. Of course, it could also be normal rebalancing for ETF subscriptions and redemptions, but choosing to do this at the moment when BTC breaks below $61,000 has a far greater emotional impact than actual selling pressure.
When the biggest institutional player starts moving bricks to the exchange, the last thing retail investors should do is think "this is a buying-the-dip opportunity."
#BTC下探60000美元关键关口

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has confirmed a significant budget cut, marking one of the most aggressive organizational adjustments in recent years.
The core details are as follows:
Budget reduced by approximately 40% by 2026
Staff size reduced by about 20% (around 54 people leaving)
The foundation will shift from the previous model of consuming about 15% of reserve assets annually to a model similar to an "endowment," aiming to reduce annual expenditures to around 5% after 2030. #0成本拿2股SK海力士

The Bitcoin triangle was broken below 64,775-62,323 on the hourly timeframe, destroying the bullish consolidation range as a lower low was formed below the red box marked at 61,880.
Although the 61,880 low was created by a spike, it is indeed lower than the starting point of the upward move at 62,323 indicated by the white arrow on the left.
While the closing price did not fall below 62,323, there was no higher high on the rebound, and the pullback showed a lower low, indicating that this upward trend has been broken.
All the breakages that shouldn't have happened have already occurred.